Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Carabobo		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	5	3.5	1.73	Watch
	6.25	3.75	1.55
	5	3.4	1.75	Watch
	5.63	3.39	1.75
	5.47	3.4	1.74	Watch
	6.5	3.6	1.53	Watch
	5.06	3.54	1.75	Watch
	5	3.4	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.49 ↓ (6.35)	3.5 ↓ (4.04)	1.69 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carabobo
17.2%

Draw
27%

Botafogo RJ
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.9%

23.4%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

23.6%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Carabobo - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Botafogo will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Carabobo (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 1 - 25%). Botafogo (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bruera L. (C) 2. Guaramato M. 4. Aponte L. 27. Rodriguez N. 13. Pernia M. 5. Gonzalez G. 26. Nunez M. 8. Perez J. 7. Tortolero E. 14. Berrios J. 11. Canozales C.	12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 32. Jair 57. David Ricardo 13. Alex Telles 47. Jeffinho 26. Gregore 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 66. Cuiabano 9. Rwan Cruz 99. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
28. Bonilla P. 23. Congo J. 12. Garcia F. (G) 1. Gil D. (G) 9. Londono F. 16. Lopez F. 15. Mendoza S. 3. Osio D. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 99. Riasco J. 10. Robert Hernandez 21. Ruiz F.	25. Allan 7. Artur 5. Danilo Barbosa 33. Elias Manoel 77. Kauan Lindes 21. Marcal 16. Nathan Fernandes 28. Newton 6. Patrick de Paula 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 63. Serafim
Coaches
Merino D.	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
35', Rwan Cruz 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', David Ricardo 🟨,
67', Perez J. ↓, Ramos Rodriguez C. I. ↑,
69', Rwan Cruz ↓, Artur ↑,
69', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
74', Tortolero E. ↓, Londono F. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Aponte L. ⚽,
80', Marlon Freitas ↓, Allan ↑,
80', Alex Telles ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
86', Nunez M. ↓, Congo J. ↑,
89', Jeffinho ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Cuiabano ⚽, Allan (A),
90+5', Gonzalez G. 🟨,

Preview

Carabobo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Botafogo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Botafogo is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Carabobo: Martinez L. (Knee Injury) Neira E. (Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Matheus Martins (Inactive) Rodriguez S. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carabobo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.25	Metropolitanos - Carabobo	1:3 ✺
27.04.25	Carabobo - Deportivo Táchira	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Carabobo - Universidad de Chile	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
17.04.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Carabobo	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Carabobo - Academia Anzoátegui	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTTTW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Capital CF Ltda	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Carabobo	2:0

Upcoming Matches