The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cardiff City 31.4%
Draw 29.9%
Nottingham Forest 38.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.6%
29%
34.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.5%
21%
47.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cardiff City's form might have worsened.
Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nottingham Forest could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20.6%
13.2%
66.2%
Cardiff City - Nottingham Forest Predictions
Users Predictions:
68 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 14 - 20.6%). Nottingham will win (votes: 45 - 66.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 13.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 55% – 77.4%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 and 8).
Cardiff has the most likely position - 20 (18.71%), has project points - 50, has currently - 23, has a small chance of relegated (13%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Nottingham has the most likely position - 8 (9.53%), has project points - 68, has currently - 43, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (24%), has a small chance of promoted (8%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Cardiff is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Nottingham is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Cardiff could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Nottingham have a series of home games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 16 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 11 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23-13.
Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-5.
Watch
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