Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 23

Date: 29 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Carlisle United		Accrington Stanley

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.55	3.3	2.65
	2.55	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.17	3.39	3.28
	2.54	3.33	2.7	Watch
	2.62	3.3	2.7
	2.54	3.38	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.17)	3.34 ↓ (3.53)	2.77 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
37.7%

Draw
28.3%

Accrington Stanley
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.3%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

25.3%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	38.5%	15.4%

Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Accrington will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 26. Barclay B. 6. Hayden A. 22. Mellish J. 11. Jones J. (C) 12. Biggins H. 3. Harper C. 24. Sadi D. 40. Harris K. 14. Adu Adjei D. 29. Armstrong L.	13. Francis Crellin W. (G) 24. Aljofree S. 5. Rawson F. 4. Awe Z. 28. Conneely S. (C) 2. Love D. 6. Coyle L. 14. Khumbeni N. 8. Woods B. 7. Whalley S. 23. Walton T.
Substitutes
27. Allan J. 15. Charters T. 25. Dudik A. 18. Ellis J. 31. Hetherington S. 17. Neal H. 23. Smith J. (G)	10. Henderson A. 45. Hunter A. 1. Kelly M. (G) 11. Knowles J. 22. Martin D. 19. Popoola A. 39. Woods J.
Coaches
Williamson M.	Doolan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Harris K. ⚽, Mellish J. (A),
29', Rawson F. 🟨,
41', Sadi D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rawson F. ↓, Woods J. ↑,
49', Adu Adjei D. 🟨,
50', Harper C. 🟨,
54', 2 - 0, Armstrong L. ⚽,
58', Khumbeni N. 🟨,
60', Conneely S. ↓, Hunter A. ↑,
60', Khumbeni N. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
66', Whalley S. 🟨,
71', Walton T. 🟨,
73', 2 - 1, Walton T. ⚽, Woods J. (A),
74', Hunter A. 🟨,
75', Harris K. ↓, Neal H. ↑,
81', Breeze G. 🟨,
86', Hayden A. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
88', Walton T. ↓, Henderson A. ↑,
88', Coyle L. ↓, Knowles J. ↑,
90+2', Jones J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 22).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Carlisle have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.3:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 1.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
26.12.24	Carlisle United - Morecambe	0:1 ✺
21.12.24	Port Vale - Carlisle United	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Carlisle United - Chesterfield	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Carlisle United - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
23.11.24	Carlisle United - Doncaster Rovers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTLTT
- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
21.12.24	Accrington Stanley - Salford City	0:2 ✺
16.12.24	Fleetwood Town - Accrington Stanley	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Accrington Stanley - Bromley	1:2 ✺
03.12.24	Grimsby Town - Accrington Stanley	5:2 ✺
English FA Cup
30.11.24	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:0
English League Two
26.12.17	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	3:1
09.09.17	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	3:0
21.01.17	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:1
03.09.16	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	1:1
16.02.16	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:1
06.02.16	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	2:0

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