Match Info

National League - Round 26

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Wealdstone

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.5	7.5
	1.36	4.85	7.1
	1.36	4.93	7.58	Watch
	1.36	4.6	6.5
	1.39	4.58	7.63
	1.32	5.33	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.52)	4.8 ↑ (4.09)	7.39 ↑ (5.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
68.2%

Draw
19.3%

Wealdstone
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.7%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

20.9%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlisle United's performance.

Wealdstone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlisle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wealdstone than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wealdstone could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Carlisle United - Wealdstone Predictions

Users Predictions: Carlisle United will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlisle United will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 22. Williams J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 6. Hayden A. 18. Ellis J. 20. Gilliead A. 37. Macadam H. 8. Whelan C. 3. Harper C. 10. Linney R. 29. Armstrong L.	1. Baptiste D. (G) 7. Boldewijn E. 2. Cook J. (C) 5. Woodman D. 22. McAvoy C. 29. Tiensia J. 17. Hutchinson D. 23. Agyemang T. 4. Mussa O. 14. Obiero M. 20. Tshikuna N.
Substitutes
7. Ajiboye D. 14. Embleton E. 19. Hetherington S. 9. Kelly G. 25. Lewis H. (G) 26. Mugabi B. 15. Murray S.	16. Diarra M. 11. Hassan S. 13. Johnson E. (G) 8. Kadji D. 19. Nkrumah D. 9. Olomola O. 32. Turner S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Armstrong L. ⚽,
37', Williams J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 2 - 0, Hayden A. ⚽,
70', Hutchinson D. ↓, Hassan S. ↑,
72', Whelan C. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
80', Ellis J. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
80', Obiero M. ↓, Olomola O. ↑,
81', Mussa O. ↓, Turner S. ↑,
87', Linney R. 🟨,
90', Linney R. ↓, Ajiboye D. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

Recent performances by Carlisle have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wealdstone's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Carlisle is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carlisle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of English National League for now

Carlisle: 4.73% Wealdstone: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23:20	3	16
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17:18	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
30.12.25	Carlisle United - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Gateshead - Carlisle United	0:3 ✺
21.12.25	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Harborough Town - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
English National League
10.12.25	Carlisle United - Woking	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLWL
- Wealdstone
English National League
30.12.25	Aldershot Town - Wealdstone	4:1 ✺
26.12.25	Wealdstone - Boreham Wood	0:4 ✺
21.12.25	Halifax Town - Wealdstone	2:2 ✺
16.12.25	Truro City - Wealdstone	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Wealdstone - Cheshunt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
23.08.25	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	0:1

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