Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)


	Carmarthen Town		Newport City

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.7	2.45
	2.29	3.85	2.56
	2.41	3.77	2.57
	2.44	3.6	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.4)	3.73 ↓ (3.8)	2.51 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
38.8%

Draw
24.6%

Newport City
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

24%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

24%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Newport City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Carmarthen Town - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Thomas L. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In recent matches, Carmarthen Town has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Newport City is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLTWT
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3 ✺
05.09.25	Newport City - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
22.03.25	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	3:0
14.09.24	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0

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