Match Info

Cymru South - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.25	3.35
	1.7	3.66	4.18
	2.01	3.38	3.62	Watch
	2	3.1	3.3
	1.96	3.34	3.42
	1.95	3.5	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (1.96)	3.37 ↓ (3.42)	3.51 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
47.1%

Draw
27%

Baglan Dragons
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.3%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

25.3%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Pontypridd United - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Angel L. ⚽,
83', 2 - 0, Angel L. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 12).

Pontypridd has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Baglan Dragons is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Pontypridd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Baglan Dragons has had a series of away games.

In this match, Pontypridd is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
14.02.26	Ynyshir Albions - Pontypridd United	1:3 ✺
30.01.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Pontypridd United - Ammanford	0:3 ✺
01.01.26	Cambrian United - Pontypridd United	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLL
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
17.02.26	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Ynyshir Albions - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Llantwit Major - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
27.07.25	Baglan Dragons - Pontypridd United	3:0
17.01.25	Pontypridd United - Baglan Dragons	1:0
26.10.24	Baglan Dragons - Pontypridd United	2:2

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