Match Info

Cymru South - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Newport City		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.2
	2.03	3.46	3.29
	2.08	3.47	3.32
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.09	3.44	3.34
	2.06	3.24	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.06)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	3.25 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport City
44.5%

Draw
27.4%

Carmarthen Town
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

29.3%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

The chances for Carmarthen Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Newport City - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
21', 0 - 1, Reed L. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Sage E. ⚽,
42', 1 - 2, Reed L. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 3, Thomas L. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
61', 2 - 3, Johnson S. ⚽,
67', 3 - 3, Bruton O. ⚽,
80', 3 - 4, Thomas L. ⚽,
84', 4 - 4, Kavanagh R. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 6)

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newport City could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newport City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Newport City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14
12	Newport City	7	2	2	3	10:6	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
20.02.26	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Newport City - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Cambrian United - Newport City	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Newport City - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLT
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
21.02.26	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	3:4 ✺
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
30.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Afan Lido - Carmarthen Town	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0
22.03.25	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	3:0
14.09.24	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0

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