Match Info

Cymru South - Round 25

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday


	Trethomas Bluebirds		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.25	2.2
	2.85	3.4	2.21
	3.01	3.51	2.21
	2.8	3.1	2.2
	2.89	3.38	2.18
	2.88	3.4	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.08)	3.34 ↓ (3.53)	2.18 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trethomas Bluebirds
31.5%

Draw
27.1%

Carmarthen Town
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

25.8%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

25.7%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trethomas Bluebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trethomas Bluebirds than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Trethomas Bluebirds - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
29', Newman Jones A. 🟥,
31', 0 - 1, Thomas L. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 0 - 2, Harling L. ⚽,
40', 1 - 2, Shaw J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
49', Idzi L. 🟥,
51', 2 - 2, Hood J. ⚽,
55', 3 - 2, Keen B. ⚽,
65', 3 - 3, Thomas L. (Penalty Awarded),
67', 4 - 3, Thomas J. ⚽,
90', 4 - 4, Reed L. ⚽,
90+3', 4 - 5, Jones T. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 6).

Recent form of Trethomas Bluebirds has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carmarthen Town has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Trethomas Bluebirds won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Trethomas Bluebirds won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14
10	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	2	4	3	17:17	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trethomas Bluebirds
Welsh Cymru South
01.03.26	Cambrian United - Trethomas Bluebirds	4:2 ✺
20.02.26	Afan Lido - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Ammanford - Trethomas Bluebirds	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
23.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWL
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
01.03.26	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	4:4 ✺
21.02.26	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	3:4 ✺
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
30.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Afan Lido - Carmarthen Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	5:1
Welsh Cymru South
28.12.24	Trethomas Bluebirds - Carmarthen Town	3:0
05.10.24	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:0

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