Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 34

Date: 27 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Pinho J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3
	2.23	3.1	3.05
	2.16	3.56	3.46
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.12	3.44	3.2
	2.15	3.45	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (3.2)	3.36 ↑ (3.3)	3.13 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
43.1%

Draw
27.4%

Estrela da Amadora
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

28.4%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

27.4%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penafiel's performance.

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estrela da Amadora might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penafiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estrela da Amadora could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Penafiel - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Estrela will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 4. Silverio 14. Miguel J. 35. Cardoso F. 5. Pereira B. M. 30. Feliz 8. Reko 21. Batista D. 15. Simao 88. Adilio 17. Roberto (C)	1. Antonio Filipe (G) 33. Correia R. 2. Omurwa J. 80. Santos Junior E. A. 12. Jean Felipe 24. Fall L. 32. Guzman S. 50. Michel 55. Farias L. 9. Silva J. 11. Salomao D. (C)
Substitutes
11. Castanheira A. 23. Cristovao H. 91. Fortes F. 3. Lucas Tagliapietra 1. Macedo N. (G) 77. Mica 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 7. Semedo E.	6. Aloisio 8. Balburdia M. 10. Capita 17. Joao Reis 29. Kikas 45. Rafael Tavares 89. Ronald 18. Vito 98. Wagner (G)
Coaches
Cristovao H.	Vieira S.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2.

Penafiel is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Estrela is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estrela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
21.05.23	Torreense - Penafiel	5:1 ✺
14.05.23	Penafiel - Tondela	1:0 ✺
07.05.23	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
30.04.23	Penafiel - Benfica B	0:3 ✺
22.04.23	Farense - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTLL
- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
21.05.23	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	0:1 ✺
12.05.23	Trofense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
06.05.23	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	2:4 ✺
28.04.23	Oliveirense - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
23.04.23	Estrela da Amadora - BSAD	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.01.23	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	3:0
Portuguese League Cup
17.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	0:2
19.12.21	Penafiel - Estrela da Amadora	0:2
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	0:1

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