Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Pinto (Caserta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Casertana		Atalanta U23

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.2	2.95
	2.08	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.16	3.4	3.24
	2.12	3.33	3.18	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3
	2.16	3.4	3.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.06)	3.29 ↓ (3.43)	3.13 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casertana
43.1%

Draw
27.8%

Atalanta U23
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

26.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

26.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Atalanta U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Casertana - Atalanta U23 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lucia V. (G) 6. Heinz J. 33. Rocchi G. 23. Martino P. 18. Oukhadda S. 21. Girelli S. 25. Toscano M. 20. Bentivegna A. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 90. Casarotto M. 7. Butic K.	95. Vismara P. (G) 19. Obric R. 18. Guerini A. 37. Navarro A. 25. Steffanoni F. 47. Levak S. 5. Panada S. 24. Ghislandi D. 11. Cassa F. 7. Manzoni A. 14. Cisse M.
Substitutes
51. Arzillo V. 13. Bacchetti L. 11. Galletta U. 9. Kallon Y. 4. Kontek I. 10. Leone K. 94. Liotti D. 12. Merolla E. (G) 16. Pezzella S. 8. Proia F. 99. Saco C. 91. Vano M. 22. Vilardi A. (G) 17. Viscardi A.	66. Bergonzi F. 4. Berto G. 58. Bonanomi A. 10. Cortinovis A. 61. Idele J. 80. Mencaraglia F. 1. Pardel P. (G) 8. Pounga D. K. 21. Riccio L. 99. Vavassori D. 90. Zanaboni E. 12. Zanchi E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Bentivegna A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Casarotto M. ↓, Kallon Y. ↑,
56', Bentivegna A. ↓, Saco C. ↑,
58', Saco C. 🟨,
61', Steffanoni F. ↓, Bonanomi A. ↑,
67', Toscano M. ↓, Pezzella S. ↑,
69', Vilardi A. 🟨,
70', Manzoni A. ↓, Cortinovis A. ↑,
70', Cassa F. ↓, Vavassori D. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Saco C. ⚽,
79', Butic K. ↓, Vano M. ↑,
79', Llano Massa M. T. ↓, Bacchetti L. ↑,
80', Ghislandi D. ↓, Zanaboni E. ↑,

Preview

In case of a draw home team advances.

Casertana is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atalanta U23 has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Casertana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Casertana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Casertana - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.5%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Atalanta U23 - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 28.8%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Casertana - Giugliano	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Latina - Casertana	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Casertana - Audace Cerignola	4:1 ✺
04.04.26	Cavese - Casertana	0:1 ✺
30.03.26	Casertana - Sorrento	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLWWW
- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Atalanta U23 - Catania	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sorrento - Atalanta U23	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Atalanta U23 - Monopoli	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Atalanta U23 - Cavese	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Siracusa - Atalanta U23	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
21.03.26	Atalanta U23 - Casertana	0:2
03.12.25	Casertana - Atalanta U23	1:0

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