Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 37

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Domenico Francioni (Latina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Latina		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	3	2.72	Watch
	2.71	3	2.97
	2.59	2.89	2.82	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.7
	2.61	3.03	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (3.02)	2.93 ↓ (3.12)	2.81 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Latina
35.6%

Draw
31.5%

Casertana
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

29.5%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

29%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Latina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Latina's performance.

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casertana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Latina than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Latina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casertana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Latina - Casertana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
67. Mastrantonio D. (G) 32. Parodi G. 6. Calabrese B. 13. Marenco F. 2. Ercolano E. 36. Lipani J. 30. De Ciancio R. 24. De Cristofaro A. 77. Cioffi A. 10. Riccardi A. 97. Parigi G.	1. De Lucia V. (G) 23. Martino P. 33. Rocchi G. 6. Heinz J. 18. Oukhadda S. 21. Girelli S. 16. Pezzella S. 10. Leone K. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 90. Casarotto M. 7. Butic K.
Substitutes
1. Basti M. (G) 27. D'Angelo S. 66. De Marchi D. 19. Di Giovannantonio G. 18. Dutu E. 20. Fasan N. 21. Hergheligiu D. 22. Iosa A. (G) 11. Pace F. 5. Pellitteri A. 3. Porro M. 80. Quieto D. 9. Sylla Y. 72. Vona A.	51. Arzillo V. 13. Bacchetti L. 20. Bentivegna A. 11. Galletta U. 9. Kallon Y. 4. Kontek I. 94. Liotti D. 30. Mancini G. 12. Merolla E. (G) 8. Proia F. 99. Saco C. 91. Vano M. 22. Vilardi A. (G) 17. Viscardi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Lipani J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Leone K. ↓, Saco C. ↑,
55', Oukhadda S. ↓, Liotti D. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Lipani J. ⚽,
73', 2 - 0, Parigi G. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Pezzella S. ↓, Kallon Y. ↑,
74', Girelli S. ↓, Bentivegna A. ↑,
75', De Cristofaro A. ↓, Vona A. ↑,
75', Riccardi A. ↓, D'Angelo S. ↑,
75', Cioffi A. ↓, Fasan N. ↑,
79', Saco C. 🟨,
80', Casarotto M. ↓, Vano M. ↑,
84', Lipani J. ↓, Hergheligiu D. ↑,
89', Parigi G. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
90+1', Vano M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Latina won 2.

Recent form of Latina has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casertana is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Latina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Latina won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Latina won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Casertana	9	4	3	2	15:13	2	15

Last Results with these Odds

Latina - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.48%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Latina Calcio
Italian Serie C Group C
12.04.26	Latina - Casarano	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Audace Cerignola - Latina	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
01.04.26	Latina - Potenza	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
28.03.26	Latina - Catania	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Nuova Cosenza - Latina	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTWLL
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
12.04.26	Casertana - Audace Cerignola	4:1 ✺
04.04.26	Cavese - Casertana	0:1 ✺
30.03.26	Casertana - Sorrento	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Atalanta U23 - Casertana	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Casertana - Monopoli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
14.12.25	Casertana - Latina	3:1
21.12.24	Casertana - Latina	0:2
23.08.24	Latina - Casertana	1:1
27.01.24	Casertana - Latina	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
04.10.23	Latina - Casertana	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
21.09.23	Latina - Casertana	1:1

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