Match Info

ITALY: SERIE C - GROUP C - ROUND 32

Date: 17 March 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Casertana		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.73	3.25	4.2
	1.75	3.4	4.75
	1.8	3.37	5.32
	1.75	3.37	5.32
	1.73	3.25	4.5
	1.75	3.28	4.57
	1.74	3.35	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.51)	3.32 ↓ (3.55)	4.74 ↓ (6.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casertana
52.7%

Draw
27.8%

Virtus Francavilla
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

25.5%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

25.1%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casertana's form might have worsened.

Virtus Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Virtus Francavilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casertana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Virtus Francavilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Casertana - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Venturi G. (G) 26. Calapai L. 4. Celiento D. (C) 13. Bacchetti L. 33. Anastasio A. 21. Casoli G. 8. Damian F. 7. Carretta M. 11. Tavernelli C. 32. Montalto A. 10. Curcio A.	89. Branduani P. (G) 15. Dutu E. 5. Monteagudo J. C. (C) 6. Gasbarro A. 7. Biondi K. 8. Di Marco T. 21. Risolo A. 19. Izzillo N. 17. Carella F. 9. Artistico G. 10. Polidori A.
Substitutes
17. Galletta U. 23. La Resta A. 1. Marfella D. (G) 16. Matese M. 24. Paglino S. 31. Rovaglia P. 6. Soprano M. 27. Turchetta G.	70. Cardoselli C. 1. Carretta F. (G) 18. Contini G. 3. De Marino D. 12. Di Serio A. (G) 99. Garofalo V. 4. Gavazzi F. 27. Laaribi M. 30. Macca F. 14. Molnar I. 23. Nicoli S. 29. Vapore A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Montalto A. ⚽,
30', Montalto A. 🟨,
37', Casoli G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tavernelli C. ↓, Matese M. ↑,
48', Carella F. 🟨,
58', Polidori A. 🟨,
60', Curcio A. ⚽,
62', Carella F. ↓, Macca F. ↑,
62', Biondi K. ↓, Nicoli S. ↑,
64', Montalto A. ↓, Rovaglia P. ↑,
67', Risolo A. ↓, Laaribi M. ↑,
67', Polidori A. ↓, Contini G. ↑,
81', Artistico G. ↓, Vapore A. ↑,
85', Curcio A. ↓, Galletta U. ↑,
90+4', Monteagudo J. C. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Group A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Casertana won 3.

Casertana is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Virtus Francavilla is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Casertana is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Casertana won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Casertana won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
11.03.24	Turris - Casertana	1:0 ✺
07.03.24	Casertana - Audace Cerignola	1:1 ✺
04.03.24	Juve Stabia - Casertana	1:0 ✺
25.02.24	Casertana - Città di Brindisi	2:1 ✺
19.02.24	Avellino - Casertana	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLWL
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie C Group C
10.03.24	Virtus Francavilla - Avellino	0:0 ✺
06.03.24	Taranto - Virtus Francavilla	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	Virtus Francavilla - Latina	1:0 ✺
26.02.24	Virtus Francavilla - Monopoli	0:0 ✺
19.02.24	Sorrento - Virtus Francavilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
11.11.23	Virtus Francavilla - Casertana	2:3
03.03.21	Casertana - Virtus Francavilla	4:0
08.11.20	Virtus Francavilla - Casertana	1:3
19.01.20	Casertana - Virtus Francavilla	1:1
08.09.19	Virtus Francavilla - Casertana	1:1
Italian Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs
12.05.19	Virtus Francavilla - Casertana	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
03.02.19	Casertana - Virtus Francavilla	1:0

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