Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, TV Record
China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3, Sport 4
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, #Vamos
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.3	1.85	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.87
	4.4	3.15	1.88
	4.95	3.37	1.9
	5.37	3.22	1.76	Watch
	4.33	3.1	1.95
	4.56	3.28	1.93	Watch
	3.75	3.25	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (3.79)	3.25 ↓ (3.27)	1.9 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
20.9%

Draw
29.2%

Flamengo
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

28.9%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

28.7%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	17.9%	78.6%

Ceará - Flamengo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ceará (1.94) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Flamengo (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (22 of 28 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.37% – 93.77%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Flamengo (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Richardson (C) 97. Lourenco 20. Diego 7. Pedro Henrique 9. Pedro Raul 27. Galeano A.	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 21. Jorginho 52. Evertton Araujo 10. de Arrascaeta G. 50. Plata G. 27. Bruno Henrique (C) 16. Lino S.
Substitutes
11. Aylon 29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 31. Lucas Lima 10. Lucas Mugni 44. Marcos Victor 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 2. Ramos R.	29. Allan 6. Ayrton Lucas 33. Cleiton 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 61. Joao Victor 23. Juninho 58. Leo Nannetti (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 8. Niguez S. 2. Varela G. 28. Victor Hugo 17. Vina M.
Coaches
Leo Conde	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Marllon 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽, Plata G. (A),
40', Richardson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
46', Pedro Henrique ↓, Aylon ↑,
46', Lourenco ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
55', Richardson ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Pedro Raul ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
72', Jorginho 🟨,
75', Bruno Henrique 🟨,
76', Jorginho ↓, Allan ↑,
76', Bruno Henrique ↓, Juninho ↑,
83', Matheus Bahia ↓, Nicolas ↑,
85', Plata G. ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
85', Emerson Royal ↓, Varela G. ↑,
87', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
90+4', Fernando Sobral 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is the team to beat.

There will not play in Flamengo: Danilo (Thigh Injury) Michael (Ankle Injury) Pedro (Yellow Cards) Pulgar E. (Foot Injury) Wallace Yan (Yellow Cards) de la Cruz N. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Flamengo: Vina M. (Rest)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Ceará - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Internacional RS - Ceará	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	Ceará - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.4 WLLLW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
23.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	Santos - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.09.22	Flamengo - Ceará	1:1
14.05.22	Ceará - Flamengo	2:2
30.11.21	Flamengo - Ceará	2:1
22.08.21	Ceará - Flamengo	1:1
10.01.21	Flamengo - Ceará	0:2
13.09.20	Ceará - Flamengo	2:0
27.11.19	Flamengo - Ceará	4:1

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