Match Info

Cearense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Ceará		Floresta

	1	X	2
	1.31	4.85	8.6	Watch
	1.26	5.07	10.54	Watch
	1.36	3.7	8.5
	1.44	3.83	8.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.38)	4.36 ↑ (4.18)	9.1 ↑ (8.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ceará
68.7%

Draw
21.1%

Floresta
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.8%

22%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

20.4%

10.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Ceará - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 4. Luiz Otavio 9. Wendell 18. Julio Cesar 26. Richardson (C) 17. Fernando 21. Alex Silva 31. Lucas Lima 98. Matheusinho 40. Melk 10. Juan Alano	22. Tiepo (G) 27. Marco Antonio (C) 3. Eduardo 4. Joao Victor 14. Cedric 17. Nonato 5. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 10. Matheusinho 9. Joao Celeri 7. Bismark
Substitutes
41. Dias G. (G) 14. Eric Melo 11. Fernandinho 63. Gilmar 81. Joao Gabriel 23. Jorge (G) 99. Lucca 13. Luiz Otavio 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 3. Ronald 25. Vinicius Zanocelo	1. Araujo Silva B. (G) 30. Arilson 19. Daniel 25. Diogo Mourao 15. Eliandro 21. Emerson 12. Gabriel 16. Marcelo Maia 28. Simplicio M. 26. Thailor 20. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Matheusinho ⚽,
12', Marco Antonio 🟨,
24', Bismark (Penalty Awarded),
33', Wendell 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Melk ⚽,
45+5', Nonato 🟨,
45+5', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marco Antonio ↓, Eliandro ↑,
46', Lucas Lima ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
46', Fernando ↓, Eric Melo ↑,
56', Juan Alano ↓, Lucca ↑,
60', Joao Celeri ↓, Thailor ↑,
61', 3 - 0, Luiz Otavio ⚽, Matheusinho (A),
63', Matheusinho ↓, Marcelo Maia ↑,
63', Bismark ↓, Emerson ↑,
63', Luiz Otavio ↓, Ronald ↑,
63', Julio Cesar ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
79', 4 - 0, Wendell ⚽, Alex Silva (A),

Preview

First leg result: 3-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 4.

Ceará has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Floresta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Floresta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceará is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Ceará will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 17:5. (average 2.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.02.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:3 ✺
08.02.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Ceará - Horizonte	4:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:5 ✺
21.01.26	Tirol - Ceará	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWWW
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.02.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Horizonte - Floresta	0:1 ✺
02.02.26	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
26.01.26	Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Floresta - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.02.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:3
10.01.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:1
27.01.24	Ceará - Floresta	1:0
10.04.19	Ceará - Floresta	3:0
27.03.19	Floresta - Ceará	2:2
03.02.19	Floresta - Ceará	0:4
22.03.18	Ceará - Floresta	2:0

Upcoming Matches