Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 20

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.7
	2.18	3.05	3.45
	2.27	3.15	3.72
	2.33	3.02	3.29	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.24	3.06	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.31)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	3.61 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
43%

Draw
30.7%

Red Bull Bragantino
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

30.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

27.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Red Bull Bragantino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	14.8%	11.1%

Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - RB Bragantino (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Ceará (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Ceará (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceará will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 15 - 88.2%). RB Bragantino (votes: 2 - 11.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado 30. Nicolas 26. Richardson (C) 97. Lourenco 20. Diego 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 11. Aylon	1. Cleiton (C) 45. Nathan Mendes 2. Rodriguez G. 14. Pedro Henrique 12. Vanderlan 6. Gabriel 7. Eric Ramires 25. Praxedes 21. Lucas Barbosa 8. Eduardo Sasha 10. Jhon Jhon
Substitutes
33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 31. Lucas Lima 10. Lucas Mugni 3. Marllon 8. Matheus Araujo 17. Paulo Baya 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 75. Rodriguinho	59. Athyrson 18. Borbas T. 27. Davi Gomes 5. Fabinho 31. Guilherme 16. Gustavo Marques 22. Gustavo Neves 80. Joao Neto 33. Laquintana I. 40. Lucao (G) 57. Marcelinho 35. Matheus Fernandes
Coaches
Leo Conde	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Aylon ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
45+1', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Gabriel 🟨,
59', Jhon Jhon 🟨,
66', Lourenco ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
66', Aylon ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
66', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Laquintana I. ↑,
71', Richardson ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
74', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
74', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
75', Eric Ramires ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
75', Gabriel ↓, Fabinho ↑,
82', Nicolas 🟨,
85', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
87', Praxedes ↓, Matheus Fernandes ↑,
89', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
89', Nicolas ↓, Ramos R. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.

Ceará has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

RB Bragantino has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

RB Bragantino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ceará could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Fernandinho (Muscle Injury) Rodriguinho (Inactive)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Eduardo Santos (Ankle Injury) Fernando (Calf Injury) Hurtado A. (Knock) Juninho Capixaba (Knee Injury) Matheus Fernandes (Calf Injury) Mosquera H. (Muscle Injury) Sant'Anna A. (Knock) Vinicinho (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Pedro Henrique (Illness)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Ceará - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Ceará - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Internacional RS - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LTWLL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Internacional RS	1:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.07.25	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
31.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	2:2
21.08.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	1:1
30.04.22	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1
17.10.21	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2
01.07.21	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	0:0
17.01.21	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2
19.09.20	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	4:2

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