Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping


	Ceará		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.4	5	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5.25
	1.78	3.25	4.65
	1.83	3.35	5.2
	1.8	3.27	4.96	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.6
	1.77	3.39	4.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.63)	3.32 ↓ (3.49)	4.92 ↓ (5.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ceará
53%

Draw
28.1%

Vila Nova
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

26.7%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

25.5%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Ceará - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Vila Nova (5.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 2. Ramos R. 33. Eder (C) 4. Luiz Otavio 12. Sanchez 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 31. Lucas Lima 40. Melk 8. Matheus Araujo 11. Fernandinho 9. Wendel Silva	1. Helton Leite (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat 38. Caio Marcelo 13. Willian Formiga 8. Willian Maranhao 5. Joao Vieira 11. Ryan 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 9. Rafa Silva
Substitutes
21. Alex Silva 20. Diego 17. Fernando 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 30. Gustavo Prado 81. Joao Gabriel 10. Juan Alano 18. Julio Cesar 99. Lucca 7. Pedro Henrique 26. Richardson 29. Vina	14. Anderson Jesus 33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 21. Dodo 18. Enzo Bizzotto 19. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 6. Higor 20. Nathan Camargo 4. Nunes S. 7. Ruan Ribeiro
Coaches
Mozart	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Rafa Silva ⚽, Janderson (A),
15', 1 - 1, Lucas Lima ⚽,
23', Wendel Silva 🟨,
28', Wendel Silva ↓, Lucca ↑,
44', 2 - 1, Matheus Araujo ⚽, Melk (A),
45+3', 3 - 1, Matheus Araujo ⚽, Lucca (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Caio Marcelo ↓, Hayner ↑,
46', Elias ↓, Anderson Jesus ↑,
52', Willian Formiga 🟨,
57', Willian Formiga ↓, Higor ↑,
58', Willian Maranhao 🟨,
63', 3 - 2, Joao Vieira (Penalty Awarded),
63', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
67', 3 - 3, Rafa Silva ⚽,
69', Lucas Lima ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
69', Matheus Araujo ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
69', Vinicius Zanocelo ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
77', Willian Maranhao ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
83', Tiago Pagnussat 🟨,
84', Tiago Pagnussat ↓, Nunes S. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ceará is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Lucca (Inactive) Vinicius Zanocelo (Inactive)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Dellatorre (Inactive) Dudu (Yellow Cards) Emerson Urso (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ceará: Richard (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:14. (average 2.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:3. (average 2.6:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.04.26	Ceará - Jacuipense	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTWWW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
18.04.26	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
15.04.26	Vila Nova - Capital CF Ltda	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
08.04.26	Primavera AC - Vila Nova	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Vila Nova - Atlético Goianiense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.09.24	Ceará - Vila Nova	4:0
10.06.24	Vila Nova - Ceará	3:2
18.11.23	Vila Nova - Ceará	3:1
19.07.23	Ceará - Vila Nova	1:0
03.10.17	Ceará - Vila Nova	2:0
20.06.17	Vila Nova - Ceará	1:1
12.11.16	Ceará - Vila Nova	2:3

Upcoming Matches