Match Info

Date: 27 August 2022, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Dias Araujo V. G. (Bra)


	Ceará		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.4	4.1
	1.87	3.3	4.2
	1.89	3.3	4
	1.93	3.44	4.4
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	1.92	3.4	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.11)	3.33 ↑ (3.27)	4.09 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
48.8%

Draw
28.2%

Athletico Paranaense
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.7%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

30.9%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.7%	33.3%	10%

Ceará - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 17 - 56.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 39% – 74.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Ceará has the most likely position - 14 (12.53%), has project points - 46, has currently - 27, has a small chance of relegated (15%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Athletico PR has the most likely position - 6 (14.89%), has project points - 59, has currently - 39, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 51, small importance 19, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1.

Ceará is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ceará is a favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Cleber (Injury) Jo (Injury) Rodrigo Lindoso (Injury) Victor Luis (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Christian (Injury) Julimar (Injury) Marcelo Cirino (Injury) Marlos (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Diego (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
21.08.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	1:1 ✺
14.08.22	Ceará - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.08.22	Ceará - São Paulo	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.08.22	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.08.22	São Paulo - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLTL
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
21.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.08.22	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.08.22	Estudiantes La Plata - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.08.22	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
07.05.22	Athletico Paranaense - Ceará	1:0
10.11.21	Athletico Paranaense - Ceará	2:1
17.07.21	Ceará - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
31.01.21	Ceará - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
08.10.20	Athletico Paranaense - Ceará	0:0
30.11.19	Ceará - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
31.08.19	Athletico Paranaense - Ceará	1:0

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