Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1


	Juventud de Las Piedras		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.3	3.5	2.05
	3.15	3.05	2.28	Watch
	3.34	3.18	2.33
	3.2	3.22	2.33
	3.1	2.9	2.3
	3.2	3.1	2.28	Watch
	5.8	3.65	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↓ (5.8)	3.21 ↓ (3.65)	2.19 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventud de Las Piedras
26.9%

Draw
29.6%

Atlético Mineiro
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

25.8%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

26.6%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventud de Las Piedras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juventud de Las Piedras's performance.

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juventud de Las Piedras that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Juventud de Las Piedras - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa S. (C) 5. Morosini D. 2. Pernicone P. 23. Mas E. 16. Rabino R. 19. Cecchini E. 27. Boselli J. 14. Roldan L. 21. Perez F. 15. Cruz A. 80. Mimbacas F.	22. Everson (C) 13. Lyanco 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 2. Natanael 21. Franco A. 8. Maycon 16. Lodi R. 11. Bernard 27. Minda A. 9. Cassierra M.
Substitutes
22. Chagas R. 30. Gomez G. 90. Guerrero S. 8. Izaguirre M. 11. Lago P. 10. Larregui B. 37. Peralta R. 26. Pereiro G. 9. Perez M. 28. Risso F. 12. Rossi N. (G) 20. Sanchez R.	5. Alexsander 6. Alonso J. 29. Caua 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 10. Gustavo Scarpa 17. Igor Gomes 48. Mateus Iseppe 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 19. Reinier 3. Roman I.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Minda A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bernard ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
46', Maycon ↓, Perez T. ↑,
57', Perez F. ↓, Lago P. ↑,
57', Boselli J. ↓, Peralta R. ↑,
59', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
65', Cassierra M. ↓, Reinier ↑,
66', Minda A. ↓, Dudu ↑,
73', Mimbacas F. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
73', Morosini D. ↓, Chagas R. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Vitor Hugo ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
78', 1 - 2, Lago P. ⚽, Cruz A. (A),
80', Cecchini E. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Perez M. ⚽, Chagas R. (A),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Juventud may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético MG could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Juventud won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Atletico-MG: 34.91%

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.88%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Academia Puerto Cabello	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTTL
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1

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