Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 7

Date: 26 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)


	Ceará		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.61	3.6	5
	1.66	3.75	5
	1.67	3.6	5.97
	1.68	3.58	5.97
	1.62	3.75	5
	1.66	3.78	5.07	Watch
	1.63	3.65	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.75)	3.68 ↑ (3.5)	5.31 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
56.9%

Draw
25.5%

Chapecoense
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

26.9%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.9%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Ceará - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 6. Ramos R. 55. Jonathan Jesus 4. David Ricardo 21. Paulo Victor 5. Jean Irmer 8. De Lucca (C) 97. Lourenco 11. Aylon 16. Erick Pulga 31. Barcelo F.	26. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 57. JP Galvao 33. Bruno Leonardo 3. Eduardo Doma 6. Mancha 35. Foguinho (C) 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto 30. Thomas Bedinelli 7. Marcinho 89. Mario Sergio
Substitutes
27. Bruninho 94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 7. Castro F. 99. Guilherme Castilho 77. Janderson 17. Joao Victor 10. Lucas Mugni 12. Maycon Cleiton (G) 40. Ramon Menezes 26. Richardson 73. Saulo Mineiro 96. Yago Lincoln	5. Auremir 1. Gabriel Gasparotto (G) 28. Habraao 88. Mailton 79. Marcelinho 8. Marlone 11. Romulo 31. Tarik 77. Walterson
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Umberto Louzer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Mario Sergio ⚽,
38', JP Galvao 🟨,
42', Giovanni Augusto 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Barcelo F. ⚽, Jean Irmer (A),
45+1', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Aylon ↓, Castro F. ↑,
52', Thomas Bedinelli 🟨,
62', Lourenco ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
73', De Lucca ↓, Saulo Mineiro ↑,
75', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Marlone ↑,
75', Thomas Bedinelli ↓, Romulo ↑,
78', Matheus Cavichioli 🟨,
79', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Auremir ↑,
80', Marcinho ↓, Walterson ↑,
81', Jean Irmer ↓, Richardson ↑,
81', Ramos R. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
82', Castro F. 🟨,
82', Saulo Mineiro 🟨,
87', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
90+2', Mario Sergio 🟨,
90+5', Mario Sergio ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
90+8', Auremir 🟨,
90+11', 2 - 1, Saulo Mineiro (Pen),
90+11', Foguinho 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Ceará could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ceará is a favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Daniel Mazerochi (Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Jhonnathan (Injury) Pedro Perotti (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Ceará won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Copa do Brasil
23.05.24	Ceará - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.05.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ceará	0:0 ✺
15.05.24	Ceará - Amazonas	2:1 ✺
10.05.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	0:3 ✺
06.05.24	Ceará - CRB Maceio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWWT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
21.05.24	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	0:0 ✺
14.05.24	Botafogo SP - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
10.05.24	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
04.05.24	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
26.04.24	Guarani - Chapecoense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.09.23	Chapecoense - Ceará	1:1
02.06.23	Ceará - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
25.09.21	Ceará - Chapecoense	1:0
13.06.21	Chapecoense - Ceará	0:0
17.11.19	Chapecoense - Ceará	1:0
10.08.19	Ceará - Chapecoense	4:1
30.09.18	Ceará - Chapecoense	3:1

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