Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Referee: Solorio Arreola H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Celaya		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.65	4.3	Watch
	1.75	3.78	5.03
	1.69	3.75	4.86	Watch
	1.53	3.9	5
	1.71	3.81	4.52	Watch
	1.66	3.65	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.54)	3.76 ↓ (3.99)	4.67 ↓ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
55.5%

Draw
24.6%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.9%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

22.6%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Celaya will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 2. Cervantes D. 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 21. Hernandez P. 7. Martinez J. 4. Munoz J. 20. Tovar J.	1. Diaz Quirarte R. (G) 21. Aguilar M. 24. Cardona U. 15. Cruz Jorge J. F. 7. Escoto A. 18. Gomez J. 4. Gonzalez Mendivil J. E. 5. Hernandez M. 33. Munoz Z. 25. Soto A. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
25. Blanco D. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 30. Kassi A. 136. Luna E. G. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E. 18. Recalde B. 9. Sanchez A. 11. Tejeda D. 5. Topete N.	12. Bravo W. (G) 19. Castaneda S. 17. Lorona L. 9. Machado J. 16. Pastrana E. 6. Ruiz A. 13. Saavedra J. 10. Tamay A. 11. Vallejo M. 20. Vazquez G.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Real H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Munoz J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Gamboa J. ⚽,
22', Gonzalez Mendivil J. E. 🟨,
23', Munoz Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Diaz Quirarte R. ↓, Bravo W. ↑,
61', Gamboa J. 🟨,
61', Soto A. ↓, Tamay A. ↑,
61', Aguilar M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Escoto A. ⚽,
68', Escoto A. 🟨,
69', Hernandez P. ↓, Manriquez S. ↑,
73', Dominguez A. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽,
82', Munoz J. ↓, Monreal E. ↑,
82', Barragan M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
84', Gonzalez Mendivil J. E. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
84', Munoz Z. ↓, Vallejo M. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Gamboa J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celaya won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Celaya is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Celaya won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:7 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.02.25	Atlético La Paz - Celaya	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Celaya - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
01.02.25	Dorados - Celaya	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Celaya - Venados	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Atlante - Celaya	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWTTL
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.02.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
08.02.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
31.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
17.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	2:1
29.02.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	0:2
19.08.23	Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
09.03.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	1:2
09.08.22	Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
06.01.22	Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
09.09.21	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	0:1

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