Match Info

USA: USL League One

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday


	Central Valley Fuego		Charlotte Independence

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3.25	2.05
	3.11	3.65	2.07
	3.04	3.59	2.11	Watch
	3.1	3.35	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.42)	3.46 ↓ (3.58)	2.08 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Valley Fuego
29.8%

Draw
26.4%

Charlotte Independence
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

25.3%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

24.6%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Valley Fuego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Charlotte Independence has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Valley Fuego than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlotte Independence than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Charlotte Independence could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zuluaga A. (G) 15. Torr C. 25. Yaya I. A. 31. Nembhard D. 7. John-Brown S. 21. Coronado R. (C) 8. Heckenberg C. 16. Gomez E. 10. Carrera J. 14. Vazquez Z. 27. Lawal Q.	1. Pack A. (G) 17. Dimick C. 3. Roberts H. 4. Spielman N. 13. Sorenson A. 27. Ndiaye B. 6. Ciss O. 8. Johnson J. 14. Alvarez L. 11. Mbuyu T. 29. Obregon J.
Substitutes
3. Apollon A. 23. Avilez C. (G) . Chalmers T. 4. Cromwell R. 6. Dabo M. 30. Kabamba D. 32. Mariona J. 11. Mendiola R. 18. Ruelas A.	9. Belmar K. 28. Levy M. (G) 2. Ngah F. 77. Obara 56. Obertan G. 24. Owoahene-Akyeampong D. 15. Pilato N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Coronado R. (Pen),
39', 1 - 1, Obregon J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lawal Q. ↓, Mendiola R. ↑,
52', Alvarez L. 🟨,
58', 1 - 2, Obregon J. (Pen),
66', Coronado R. ↓, Apollon A. ↑,
66', Mbuyu T. ↓, Obertan G. ↑,
67', Ndiaye B. ↓, Pilato N. ↑,
77', Sorenson A. 🟨,
80', 1 - 3, Alvarez L. ⚽, Obertan G. (A),
83', Obregon J. ↓, Belmar K. ↑,
83', Sorenson A. ↓, Owoahene-Akyeampong D. ↑,
83', Yaya I. A. 🟨,
86', Belmar K. 🟨,
87', Gomez E. ↓, Cromwell R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fuego won 1.

Fuego has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Charlotte Independence in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fuego could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Charlotte Independence will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Fuego won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Fuego won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Valley Fuego
USL Cup
27.04.24	Spokane Velocity - Central Valley Fuego	1:1 ✺
USL League One
13.04.24	Central Valley Fuego - Chattanooga Red Wolves	2:4 ✺
06.04.24	Richmond Kickers - Central Valley Fuego	3:2 ✺
US Open Cup
02.04.24	El Farolito - Central Valley Fuego	2:1 ✺
USL League One
29.03.24	Central Valley Fuego - Forward Madison	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLLL
- Charlotte Independence
USL Cup
27.04.24	South Georgia Tormenta - Charlotte Independence	1:2 penalties ✺
USL League One
20.04.24	Union Omaha - Charlotte Independence	0:0 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.24	Charlotte Independence - Rhode Island	5:4 penalties ✺
USL League One
12.04.24	Charlotte Independence - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
28.03.24	Charlotte Independence - Spokane Velocity	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
19.08.23	Central Valley Fuego - Charlotte Independence	1:2
22.07.23	Charlotte Independence - Central Valley Fuego	1:2
22.04.23	Charlotte Independence - Central Valley Fuego	1:0
17.09.22	Central Valley Fuego - Charlotte Independence	0:3
29.07.22	Charlotte Independence - Central Valley Fuego	4:0
08.04.22	Charlotte Independence - Central Valley Fuego	3:3

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