Match Info

USA: USL League One

Date: 17 May 2024, Friday


	Central Valley Fuego		One Knoxville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3.4	2
	3.2	3.5	2
	3.28	3.42	2.08
	3.28	3.42	2.08
	3.26	3.47	2.06	Watch
	3.2	3.5	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.99)	3.45 ↓ (3.83)	2.04 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Valley Fuego
28.6%

Draw
26.5%

One Knoxville
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

24.2%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

24.7%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Valley Fuego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

The chances for One Knoxville have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Valley Fuego than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for One Knoxville than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zuluaga A. (G) 15. Torr C. 25. Yaya I. A. 31. Nembhard D. 7. John-Brown S. 21. Coronado R. 6. Dabo M. 16. Gomez E. 10. Carrera J. 11. Mendiola R. (C) 20. Midence A.	1. Lewis S. (G) 16. Thomas J. 3. Haugli S. 4. Skelton J. 22. Ritchie S. 45. Adjei K. 8. Kelly-Rosales A. 7. Machell C. 12. Johnson C. 91. Calixtro G. 10. Tekiela K.
Substitutes
3. Apollon A. 23. Avilez C. (G) 26. Chalmers T. 4. Cromwell R. 27. Lawal Q. 32. Mariona J. 13. Moe 14. Vazquez Z. 19. Williams T.	18. Benton D. 9. Castro R. 25. Garibay J. (G) 19. Nshuti I. 40. O'Hearn S. 11. Ross F. 6. van der Pluijm Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Kelly-Rosales A. ⚽,
31', Carrera J. 🟨,
34', Gomez E. ↓, Cromwell R. ↑,
45', Coronado R. ↓, Vazquez Z. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 2, Tekiela K. ⚽,
57', Dabo M. ↓, Moe ↑,
65', Calixtro G. ↓, Nshuti I. ↑,
65', Machell C. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
71', Nembhard D. ↓, Apollon A. ↑,
76', Adjei K. ↓, Ross F. ↑,
78', Haugli S. 🟨,
84', Tekiela K. ↓, van der Pluijm Y. ↑,
88', John-Brown S. 🟨,
90', Ross F. 🟨,
90+5', Thomas J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Fuego has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

One Knoxville is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

One Knoxville will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Fuego won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Fuego won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Valley Fuego
USL Cup
11.05.24	Lexington - Central Valley Fuego	3:2 penalties ✺
USL League One
03.05.24	Central Valley Fuego - Charlotte Independence	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
27.04.24	Spokane Velocity - Central Valley Fuego	1:1 ✺
USL League One
13.04.24	Central Valley Fuego - Chattanooga Red Wolves	2:4 ✺
06.04.24	Richmond Kickers - Central Valley Fuego	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTLL
- One Knoxville SC
USL Cup
11.05.24	One Knoxville - Northern Colorado Hailstorm	1:5 ✺
USL League One
03.05.24	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
27.04.24	Chattanooga Red Wolves - One Knoxville	0:1 ✺
USL League One
12.04.24	One Knoxville - Union Omaha	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
03.04.24	One Knoxville - Greenville Triumph	2:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
29.07.23	Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville	0:1
30.04.23	Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville	0:1
12.04.23	One Knoxville - Central Valley Fuego	1:1

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