Match Info

JAPAN: EMPERORS CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)


	Cerezo Osaka		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.25	6.5
	1.31	4.75	7.25
	1.32	4.8	8
	1.33	5.28	8.94
	1.29	4.6	7.5
	1.32	5.05	8.4
	1.33	5	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.47)	4.96 ↑ (4.24)	7.77 ↑ (6.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
69.7%

Draw
18.5%

Omiya Ardija
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

21.9%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

21.5%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cerezo Osaka's performance.

Omiya Ardija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Cerezo Osaka - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Users Predictions: Cerezo Osaka will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Shimizu K. (G) 27. Capixaba 4. Harakawa R. 22. Jonjic M. 38. Kitano S. 2. Matsuda R. 41. Nakahara H. 33. Nishio R. 17. Suzuki T. (C) 7. Uejo S. 6. Yamanaka R.	35. Minami Y. (C) 31. Abe R. 43. Ichihara R. 39. Izumisawa J. 7. Kojima M. 14. Miyuki H. 22. Motegi R. 9. Nakano S. 46. Nuki M. 34. Omori R. 5. Urakami N.
Substitutes
11. Croux J. 29. Funaki K. 20. Kato M. 5. Kida H. 13. Kiyotake H. 9. Leo Ceara 1. Yang Han-Been (G)	6. Ohashi H. 3. Okaniwa S. 19. Rodrigo 48. Shibayama M. 32. Takayanagi F. 50. Wakabayashi M. (G) 23. Yajima K.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cerezo Osaka won 5.

Recent matches Cerezo Osaka is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Omiya is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Omiya could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cerezo Osaka is absolute favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cerezo Osaka won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Cerezo Osaka won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
08.07.23	Sagan Tosu - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
30.06.23	Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
24.06.23	Consadole Sapporo - Cerezo Osaka	1:4 ✺
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.06.23	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWLW
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Omiya Ardija	2:0 ✺
05.07.23	Omiya Ardija - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
01.07.23	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
24.06.23	Omiya Ardija - Iwaki	1:5 ✺
17.06.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
29.10.17	Cerezo Osaka - Omiya Ardija	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
25.10.17	Cerezo Osaka - Omiya Ardija	2:0
Japan J1 League
20.05.17	Omiya Ardija - Cerezo Osaka	0:3
Japan J2 League
20.09.15	Omiya Ardija - Cerezo Osaka	1:2
15.03.15	Cerezo Osaka - Omiya Ardija	3:1
Japan J1 League
06.12.14	Omiya Ardija - Cerezo Osaka	2:0
29.04.14	Cerezo Osaka - Omiya Ardija	1:1

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