Match Info
J1 League - Round 14Date: 3 May 2026, SundayLocation: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
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Cerezo Osaka |
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Avispa Fukuoka |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Cerezo Osaka
50.7% | Draw
26.5% | Avispa Fukuoka
22.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (-0.3%)Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 29% – 96%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
23.  Nakamura K. (G)
16. Okuda H.
4. Inoue R.
44. Hatanaka S.
66. Ohata A.
18. Ishiwatari N.
10. Tanaka S. (C)
48. Shibayama M.
13. Nakajima M.
19. Homma S.
11.  Thiago Andrade
| 41. Fujita K. (G)
16. Oka T.
5. Kamijima T.
15. Tsujioka Y.
47. Hashimoto Y.
8. Okuno K.
11. Miki T. (C)
22. Fujimoto K.
6. Shigemi M.
25. Kitajima Y.
7. Usui S.
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| Substitutes |
27.  Cools D.
8. Kagawa S.
5. Kida H.
21.  Kim Jin-Hyeon (G)
26. Kubo E.
9. Sakuragawa S.
3. Tanaka H.
7. Uejo S.
14. Yokoyama Y.
| 46. Fukushima K.
29. Maejima Y.
27. Michiwaki Y.
45. Miya D.
3. Nara T.
99. Obi P. O. (G)
32. Sani Brown A.
34. Shiihashi K.
33. Yamawaki K.
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| Coaches |
 Papas A.
| Tsukahara S.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Usui S. ⚽,
- 35', Ishiwatari N. 🟨,
- 37', Hashimoto Y. ↓, Maejima Y. ↑,
- 40', Tanaka S. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 1, Inoue R. ⚽, Shibayama M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 62', Okuno K. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
- 62', Kitajima Y. ↓, Yamawaki K. ↑,
- 63', Shibayama M. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
- 63', Homma S. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
- 73', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
- 73', Thiago Andrade ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
- 82', Usui S. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
- 82', Fujimoto K. ↓, Fukushima K. ↑,
- Penalties (4 - 3)
- 1, Tsujioka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Kagawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Shiihashi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Tanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Shigemi M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Cools D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Michiwaki Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Hatanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Kamijima T. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 5.Both teams have been playing unpredictably.Cerezo Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.Recently, Cerezo Osaka has had a series of away games. Cerezo Osaka could have a small edge in this match.There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Knee Injury)
Sakata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
Takahashi T.
(Back Injury)
Yengi K.
(Muscle Injury)There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Nago S.
(Red Card)In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.4:0.9).Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).
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Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 6 |
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| 15 | Avispa Fukuoka | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:6 | 0 | 3 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Japan J1 League | | | 15.02.26 | Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka | 0:2 | | 13.09.25 | Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka | 2:4 | | 24.05.25 | Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka | 2:0 | | 09.11.24 | Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka | 1:0 | | 18.05.24 | Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka | 0:3 | | 30.06.23 | Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka | 0:1 | | 25.02.23 | Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka | 2:1 |
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Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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