Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Nacional Montevideo		Miramar Misiones

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.5	12	Watch
	1.24	5.5	9.8
	1.25	6.15	10.98
	1.00	16.24	30.00	Watch
	1.28	5.33	9.85	Watch
	1.3	5.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.31)	7.34 ↑ (5.27)	13.36 ↑ (7.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
79.5%

Draw
13.2%

Miramar Misiones
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

17.6%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.3%

16.5%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Montevideo's performance.

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Miramar Misiones Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Nacional Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 27. Romero D. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 6. Boggio L. 23. Rodriguez L. 11. Otero R. 20. Carneiro G. 9. Gomez M.	30. Moreno J. (G) 19. Olivera A. 14. Pereira G. (C) 15. Alonso F. 4. Lopez P. 16. Gomez M. 22. Diaz O. 8. Pandiani A. 25. Olivera D. 31. Da Silva S. 24. Silvera F.
Substitutes
15. Calione P. 30. Dos Santos A. 18. Ebere C. 7. Lopez N. 24. Mereles E. 8. Oliva C. 10. Pereyra M. 77. Rodriguez N. . Suarez I. (G) 32. Viera T.	28. Gelos N. 12. Gonzalez L. (G) 80. Ortiz P. 21. Rodriguez A. 37. Roldan M. 17. Saliadarre E. 23. Siri E. 11. Sosa A. 18. Tirado F. 7. Yepez I.
Coaches
Peirano P.	Giordano B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Gomez M. (Pen),
22', Carneiro G. 🟨,
22', Alonso F. 🟨,
32', Gomez M. 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Gomez M. (Pen),
38', Pandiani A. 🟨,
41', 3 - 0, Otero R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Silvera F. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
61', Oliva C. 🟨,
66', Olivera D. ↓, Tirado F. ↑,
70', Carneiro G. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
70', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Mereles E. ↑,
77', Tirado F. 🟥,
78', Boggio L. ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,
78', Otero R. ↓, Dos Santos A. ↑,
79', Da Silva S. ↓, Yepez I. ↑,
82', Gomez M. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Gomez M. ⚽,
84', Coates S. 🟨,
89', Diaz O. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 5.

Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Miramar Misiones's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Miramar Misiones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nacional is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:4. (average 3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:1. (average 4:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.10.25	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1 ✺
14.09.25	Plaza Colonia - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWTWW
- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
21.06.25	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	0:2
18.04.25	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	1:3
17.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	5:1
20.07.24	Nacional Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	4:0
16.04.24	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	1:2
Uruguay Copa
07.09.22	Miramar Misiones - Nacional Montevideo	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.14	Nacional Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	3:0

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