Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.6	6.25	Watch
	1.47	4	6.25
	1.44	4.15	6.5
	1.47	4.24	7.35
	1.45	4.4	6.91	Watch
	1.44	3.9	7
	1.53	3.79	6.59	Watch
	1.38	4.3	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.38)	4.05 ↓ (4.3)	6.79 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
63.6%

Draw
22.8%

Cerro Largo
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

21.3%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

20.5%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Suarez I. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 2. Rogel A. 32. Viera T. 21. Candido C. 14. Lodeiro N. (C) 23. Rodriguez L. 6. Boggio L. 27. Veron T. 20. Carneiro G. 9. Gomez M.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 3. Piegas A. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 7. Viera G. 14. Correa L. 8. Garcia M. 11. Anasco M. 10. Pandiani A. 9. Correa T.
Substitutes
34. Bais F. 30. Barcia B. 40. Bianchi J. (G) 15. Calione P. 18. Dalmas J. 19. De Los Santos J. 10. Dos Santos A. 24. Mereles E. 77. Rodriguez N. 8. Vera M.	27. Barone B. 22. Bertocchi N. 2. Chocobar G. F. 18. Daguerre D. 30. Hernandez B. 25. Jourdan E. 5. Marcel S. 1. Moreno J. (G) 21. Pou J. 28. Ramos N.
Coaches
Viera J.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Veron T. ⚽,
40', Candido C. ↓, Bais F. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Piegas A. 🟨,
61', Viera G. ↓, Bertocchi N. ↑,
61', Anasco M. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
65', Hernandez B. 🟨,
67', Carneiro G. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
67', Veron T. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, De Los Santos J. ⚽,
76', Franca S. ↓, Pou J. ↑,
76', Garcia M. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Barcia B. ⚽,
80', Lodeiro N. 🟨,
82', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
85', Gomez M. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
85', Lodeiro N. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
88', Pou J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Nacional is the clear favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:14. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Nacional Montevideo	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLW
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.26	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Central Español - Cerro Largo	1:3 ✺
09.03.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
17.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1
06.04.25	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4
13.10.24	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1
23.06.24	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4
06.04.24	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0
26.08.23	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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