Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Referee: Rodriguez D. (Uru)


	River Plate Montevideo		Danubio

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3	2.35
	3.05	3.1	2.33	Watch
	3.33	3.01	2.46
	3.07	2.98	2.47	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.4
	2.98	3.23	2.36	Watch
	3	3.15	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.95)	3.07 ↑ (3.04)	2.39 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
30.5%

Draw
30.4%

Danubio
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

30.7%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

29.8%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

River Plate Montevideo - Danubio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 2. Perez F. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera R. 22. Alfonso M. 27. Lopez I. 7. Quintana J. 11. De Los Santos J. 10. Vera A. 19. Barone F.	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 28. Femia E. 23. Gonzalez M. 2. Velazquez E. 8. Rabino R. 7. Pintos I. 19. Romero S. 17. Velazquez A. 16. Peralta M. 9. Nunez S. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
17. Cachi M. 29. Camejo L. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez L. 15. Jourdan E. 24. Lopez T. 20. Mederos S. 26. Orono G. 23. Rodriguez F.	18. Azambuja N. 38. Cardozo E. 14. Fernandez J. 26. Piriz D. 12. Rio J. (G) 4. Risso M. 3. Rodriguez G. 15. Roldan F. 11. Sanseviero L. 6. Sosa L.
Coaches
Ribas J.	Olivera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Alfonso M. 🟨,
28', Rabino R. 🟨,
34', Sosa L. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
63', Alfonso M. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,
66', Peralta M. ↓, Sanseviero L. ↑,
66', Velazquez A. ↓, Cardozo E. ↑,
66', Lopez I. ↓, Orono G. ↑,
66', Vera A. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
66', Barone F. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
68', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 🟨,
70', 🟨,
71', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
80', Pintos I. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
80', Nunez S. ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Quintana J. ⚽,
83', Femia E. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
85', Romero S. 🟥,
86', De Los Santos J. 🟨,
86', 🟨,
90+6', Quintana J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches River Plate won 2.

The competitors look crappy now.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 20 head-to-head matches River Plate won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 19:23 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.61%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Racing Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWTLL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Danubio - Boston River	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:1 ✺
27.03.25	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
15.09.24	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
02.03.24	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0
11.11.23	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
22.07.23	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
31.03.23	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	2:1
24.09.22	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
10.07.22	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	1:3

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