Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Mendez Chavez I. N. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network


	Cerro Largo		Universidad Católica del Ecuador

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.55	3	2.9
	2.62	3.11	2.88
	2.58	3.17	2.88	Watch
	2.38	3	3	Watch
	2.57	3.1	2.84	Watch
	2.55	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.65)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	2.92 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
37.5%

Draw
30.4%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

30.2%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.9%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Cerro Largo - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cerro Largo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Santilli G. (G) 17. Garcia A. 19. Brasil M. 2. Parada F. 6. Bonifazi F. 15. Assis S. 22. Bertocchi N. 8. Mir M. 25. Perez A. 11. Anasco M. 13. Peraza F.	12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 4. Jhon Chancellor 33. Canga L. 28. Diaz M. 15. Moreno L. 5. Cacciabue J. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 9. Londono A. 18. Palacios B. 11. Diaz I.
Substitutes
21. Alfonso M. 7. Contrera J. 14. Correa L. 5. Di Pippa A. 32. Gianoli M. 18. Gonzalez C. 23. Gonzalez T. 27. Medina F. 10. Otormin L. 1. Pintado F. (G) 28. Rollano S. 9. Rossi F.	20. Castillo Saa J. L. 8. Clavijo E. 7. Fajardo J. 30. Maciel M. 37. Medina C. 3. Mosquera I. 23. Rodriguez A. 14. Sanchez I. 17. Troya R. 1. Valencia E. (G) 44. Valencia E.
Coaches
Nunez D.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Palacios B. ⚽, Lara J. (A),
27', Assis S. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Diaz I. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
35', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
40', Romero Padilla D. A. 🟨,
43', Londono A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Garcia A. ↓, Correa L. ↑,
46', Brasil M. ↓, Di Pippa A. ↑,
46', Peraza F. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
46', Mir M. ↓, Contrera J. ↑,
46', Assis S. ↓, Otormin L. ↑,
60', Correa L. 🟨,
61', Anasco M. 🟨,
66', Palacios B. ↓, Fajardo J. ↑,
73', Diaz M. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
87', 0 - 3, Diaz I. ⚽,
90', Cacciabue J. ↓, Troya R. ↑,
90+1', Londono A. ↓, Maciel M. ↑,
90+1', Moreno L. ↓, Clavijo E. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 3, Anasco M. ⚽,

Preview

Cerro Largo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Uni Católica has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cerro Largo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
28.04.25	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WTWWL
- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.25	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
28.04.25	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	2:0 ✺
15.04.25	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Cerro Largo	3:1

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