Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Chapecoense		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.8	1.79	Watch
	3.70	3.60	1.95
	3.95	3.6	1.82	Watch
	4.22	3.98	1.87
	3.82	3.87	1.9	Watch
	4.25	3.9	1.81
	4.44	3.82	1.81	Watch
	3.9	3.7	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↑ (3.55)	3.78 ↑ (3.4)	1.85 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
23.4%

Draw
25.1%

Athletico Paranaense
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

27.5%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

25.9%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	26.7%	73.3%

Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.77) (votes: 91%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Anderson (G) 23. Dudu Marques 21. Kauan 4. Joao Paulo 91. Bruno Pacheco 88. Yago Felipe 16. Bruno Matias 7. Marcinho 10. Giovanni Augusto (C) 31. Mauricio Garcez 9. Tulio	1. Mycael (G) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 20. Bruno Tubarao 80. Carvalho M. 19. David Antunes 3. Eduardo Doma 14. Gabriel Werner (G) 6. Mancha 30. Matheus Aurelio (G) 15. Rafael Thyere 39. Rodrigo 55. Rosivan 29. Rossi F.	55. Bruno Baldini 47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 3. Leo 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 23. Santos (G) 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda	Hellmann O.

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 20th in the Relegation - Serie B and 4th in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Recently, Chapecoense has faced a series of away games on the road.

Athletico PR is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Chapecoense: Fernando (Yellow Cards) Heitor (Hamstring Injury) Max Alves (Back Injury) Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury) Robert Conceicao (Knee Injury) Vinicius Balieiro (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Athletico PR: Benavidez G. (Muscle Injury) Dantas (Inactive).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense has recorded 2 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:24 (averaging 0.9:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chapecoense against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss, with 11:8 goals (averaging 1.2:0.9 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.15%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 26.31%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
07.10.26	Vitória Salvador - Chapecoense	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Chapecoense - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Corinthians - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.1 LTTLW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
16.09.25	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	2:3
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
13.10.21	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
27.06.21	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	2:2
29.09.19	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1
05.05.19	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	1:1

Upcoming Matches