The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Chapecoense 22.7%
Draw 29.5%
Fluminense 47.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
24.6%
28.7%
46.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.2%
22.4%
59.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+12.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
15.2%
17.4%
67.4%
Chapecoense - Fluminense Predictions
Users Predictions:
46 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 7 - 15.2%). Fluminense will win (votes: 31 - 67.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 17.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 53.9% – 80.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)).
Chapecoense has the most likely position - 20 (74.22%), has project points - 27, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (95%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Fluminense has the most likely position - 10 (8.53%), has project points - 50, has currently - 22, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Chapecoense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Fluminense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Chapecoense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Fluminense have a series of home games.
In this match Fluminense is a favorite.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-15.
Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.
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