The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Chapecoense 23.1%
Draw 26.3%
Fluminense 50.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
21.9%
26.4%
51.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22%
26.4%
51.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
20%
80%
Chapecoense - Fluminense Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2 - over (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
98. Anderson (G) 20. Bruno Tubarao 3. Eduardo Doma (C) 4. Joao Paulo 91. Bruno Pacheco 27. Camilo Reijers 88. Yago Felipe 7. Marcinho 10. Giovanni Augusto 31. Mauricio Garcez 11. Bolasie Y.
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 16. Nonato 34. Wesley Nata 10. PH Ganso (C) 90. Serna K. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
16. Bruno Matias 80. Carvalho M. 19. David Antunes 23. Dudu Marques 12. Fernando 30. Matheus Aurelio (G) 22. Max Alves 15. Rafael Thyere 94. Ramirez K. 39. Rodrigo 29. Rossi F. 9. Tulio
32. Acosta L. 17. Canobbio A. 14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 22. Freytes J. 94. Otavio 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 41. Ruan Sales 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda
Marcao
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Bolasie Y. ⚽, Giovanni Augusto (A),
30', 1 - 1, Guga ⚽, Hulk (A),
37', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Tulio ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Giovanni Augusto ⚽, Tulio (A),
57', Yago Felipe 🟨,
65', Wesley Nata ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
65', PH Ganso ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
70', Bolasie Y. ↓, Ramirez K. ↑,
70', Yago Felipe ↓, Bruno Matias ↑,
73', Joao Paulo ↓, Rafael Thyere ↑,
79', Hercules ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
83', Marcinho ↓, Fernando ↑,
85', Hulk ↓, Cano G. ↑,
85', Igor Rabello ↓, Rene ↑,
90+2', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 20th in the Relegation - Serie B and 5th in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0.
Recent results have been tough for Chapecoense (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Fluminense has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Chapecoense could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Chapecoense has faced a series of away games on the road.
Bookmakers give the edge to Fluminense for this game.
Confirmed absences for Chapecoense: Heitor
(Hamstring Injury)
Kauan
(Yellow Cards)
Rafael Carvalheira
(Knee Injury)
Robert Conceicao
(Knee Injury)
Vinicius Balieiro
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Fluminense: Alisson
(Hip Injury)
John Kennedy
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Reis
(Knee Injury)
Savarino J.
(Yellow Cards).
Doubtful / questionable for Fluminense: Martinelli
(Inactive).
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:22 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Chapecoense against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 8:6 goals (averaging 1.1:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Fluminense
33
15
9
9
52:42
10
54
20
Chapecoense-SC
32
4
9
19
32:66
-34
21
Last Results with these Odds
Chapecoense - the odds 4.25 are the expected chance of winning is 21.9%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Fluminense - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.7%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
Ecuador
Usa
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Anderson (G) 
Bolasie Y. 
Serna K. 
Carvalho M. 
Ramirez K. 
Acosta L. 
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