Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 19 January 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Estrela da Amadora		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.78	3.45	2.38
	2.86	3.54	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.95	3.52	2.46	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.49)	3.45 ↑ (3.03)	2.37 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
33.1%

Draw
27.2%

Estoril Praia
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

30.5%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

30.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estoril Praia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estoril Praia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	34.8%	30.4%

Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Estoril will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.3% – 56.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Estrela (2.11) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Estoril (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 6 - 50%). Estoril (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 17. Encada J. 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 83. Otavio 18. Meireles J. 63. Sola A. 19. Moreira P. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 10. Stoica I.	1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 25. Bacher F. 24. Amaral P. 2. Sanchez R. 10. Holsgrove J. 6. Jandro 12. Carvalho J. (C) 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 14. Begraoui Y.
Substitutes
80. Alisson Souza 7. Antonetti L. 79. Chernev A. 27. Fuhrer P. 22. Grilo D. (G) 11. Jovane 21. Montoia G. 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho	22. Carvalho P. 20. Costa G. 11. Edwards K. 4. Ferro 7. Lominadze N. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Silva L.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Carvalho J. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
45', Marcus A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
46', Stoica I. ↓, Jovane ↑,
51', 0 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
54', 0 - 3, Begraoui Y. (Penalty Awarded),
64', 0 - 4, Marques A. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
66', Boma K. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
66', Marques A. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
66', Carvalho J. ↓, Ferro ↑,
67', Sanchez R. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
67', Sola A. ↓, Robinho ↑,
67', Meireles J. ↓, Alisson Souza ↑,
70', 0 - 5, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Amaral P. (A),
73', Robinho 🟨,
78', Holsgrove J. ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
80', Otavio ↓, Chernev A. ↑,
81', Jandro 🟨,
84', Peixinho 🟨,
90+2', Jovane 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Estrela: Ni (Injury)

There will not play in Estoril: Costa G. (Injury) Xeka (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Israelov O. (Thigh Injury) Lacximicant A. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.02%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	3:3 ✺
27.12.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
20.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TWTLW
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
19.12.25	Estoril Praia - Braga	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.08.25	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	1:1
17.05.25	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	4:0
05.01.25	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	2:4
04.02.24	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	1:0
25.08.23	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	2:1

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