Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 13

Date: 10 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Estoril Praia		Chaves

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.96	3.75	4.04
	1.94	3.75	4.04
	1.85	3.6	3.6	Watch
	1.92	3.7	3.8	Watch
	1.97	3.65	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.03)	3.66 ↓ (3.68)	3.8 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
49.2%

Draw
25.9%

Chaves
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

26.2%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	6.7%	3.3%

Estoril Praia - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: Estoril Praia will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Marcelo Carne (G) 2. Parra R. 3. Vital B. 23. Alvaro P. 21. Gomes R. 8. Holsgrove J. 82. Fernandes M. 78. Araujo T. 10. Guitane R. 11. Cassiano (C) 33. Marques J.	31. Moura R. (G) 19. Vitoria S. (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Cruz S. 27. Carraca 8. Pedro J. 28. Nwakali K. 5. Langa B. A. 10. Sanca L. 99. Jo 23. Hernandez H.
Substitutes
99. Figueira Daniel (G) 91. Heriberto Tavares 20. Joao Carlos 83. Koindredi K. 22. Mangala E. 9. Marques A. 64. Ndiaye M. 79. Pina W. 5. Volnei Feltes	77. Araujo Correia J. P. 7. Benny 21. Guimaraes R. 1. Hugo Souza (G) 70. Morim H. 9. Paulo Victor 44. Queiros J.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Morgado L.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estoril won 1.

Estoril is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Chaves is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chaves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Estoril will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Chaves: Pinho P. (Injury) Sylla H. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Estoril to win the game is with odds 1.94.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Estoril won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Estoril won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Portuguese League Cup
06.12.23	Estoril Praia - Porto	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.12.23	Braga - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Estoril Praia - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.23	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
03.11.23	Porto - Estoril Praia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 53.8 WLWWW
- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
01.12.23	Chaves - Vizela	2:1 ✺
11.11.23	Portimonense - Chaves	2:1 ✺
04.11.23	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
28.10.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	5:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.10.23	Canelas - Chaves	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.03.23	Estoril Praia - Chaves	0:2
01.10.22	Chaves - Estoril Praia	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
08.05.21	Estoril Praia - Chaves	1:1
09.01.21	Chaves - Estoril Praia	0:2
12.10.19	Chaves - Estoril Praia	2:0
Liga Portugal
25.02.18	Chaves - Estoril Praia	2:0
23.09.17	Estoril Praia - Chaves	0:2

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