Match Info

FNL - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Chayka Central Stadium (Peschanokopskoye)

Referee: Falov V. (Rus)


	Chayka Peschanokopskoye		Spartak Kostroma

	1	X	2
	4.88	3.47	1.8
	4.88	3.46	1.81	Watch
	4.86	3.27	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.87 ↓ (5.21)	3.4 ↑ (3.37)	1.78 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chayka Peschanokopskoye
19.3%

Draw
27.7%

Spartak Kostroma
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

27.2%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

26.8%

56%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chayka Peschanokopskoye has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Spartak Kostroma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chayka Peschanokopskoye than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Kostroma than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Spartak Kostroma Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Peschanokopskoye will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Spartak Kostroma will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spartak Kostroma: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spartak Kostroma will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Fadeev S. (C) 6. Petin Y. 55. Gapeev V. 39. Maslov P. 24. Pridava N. 8. Rosputko O. 89. Chervyakov R. 91. Stolyarov D. 10. Dzhebov A. 7. Gulyaev E. 87. Filev A.	68. Gaydash M. (G) 5. Zhilmostnykh D. 4. Supranovich N. 2. Tarasov N. 18. Ignatiev M. 22. Nemchenko A. 35. Enin I. (C) 7. Bokov D. 8. Sadov D. 11. Nazarenko E. 99. Gharibyan A.
Substitutes
95. Gerdt A. 69. Gurylev A. 83. Ishchenko N. 14. Kaptilovich D. 11. Kriushichev M. 27. Krutovskikh A. 88. Markelov I. 15. Rogochiy B. 18. Sokolov A. 96. Sorochinskiy I. (G) 38. Topinka S. 22. Uzhgin M.	3. Bugriev S. 23. Chikanchi M. 69. Chursin K. 56. Demyanov V. 80. Khorin A. A. 78. Kiselev G. 86. Korets N. (G) 24. Kudryashov I. 66. Makarenko Y. 85. Puchkov S. 55. Saplinov A. 57. Tlekhugov M.
Coaches
Kombarov D.	Bondar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Zhilmostnykh D. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Gulyaev E. ⚽,
45+5', 1 - 2, Nazarenko E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 1 - 3, Nazarenko E. ⚽,
54', Nazarenko E. 🟨,
55', Bokov D. ↓, Saplinov A. ↑,
55', Nemchenko A. ↓, Tlekhugov M. ↑,
55', Gharibyan A. ↓, Chikanchi M. ↑,
57', Dzhebov A. ↓, Sokolov A. ↑,
57', Maslov P. ↓, Krutovskikh A. ↑,
59', Gapeev V. 🟨,
62', 1 - 4, Ignatiev M. ⚽,
67', Gulyaev E. ↓, Ishchenko N. ↑,
67', Rosputko O. ↓, Kaptilovich D. ↑,
70', Zhilmostnykh D. ↓, Kiselev G. ↑,
74', Chervyakov R. 🟨,
77', Nemchenko A. ↓, Chursin K. ↑,
83', 2 - 4, Sokolov A. ⚽,
90', Tarasov N. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Peschanokopskoye is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Spartak Kostroma is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Spartak Kostroma is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Spartak Kostroma will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Peschanokopskoye won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Peschanokopskoye won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chayka Peschanokopskoye
Russian FNL
15.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:1 ✺
08.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Rotor	0:6 ✺
30.08.25	Ufa - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Arsenal Tula	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Spartak Kostroma
Russian FNL
13.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Sokol Saratov	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Rotor - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.8 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division A Gold
15.10.23	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Spartak Kostroma	1:2
19.08.23	Spartak Kostroma - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	1:1

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