Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
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Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport 4
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
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Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	HBO Max
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Mongolia	Premier Sports 2
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
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Poland	Canal+ Extra 3, CANAL+ Poland
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Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 2 Bar Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 4
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Chelsea		Brentford

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.75	4.1
	1.9	3.9	3.85
	1.89	3.82	4.17	Watch
	1.85	3.75	3.7
	1.85	3.82	4.4	Watch
	1.85	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.66)	3.81 ↓ (4.05)	4.04 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
51.2%

Draw
25.1%

Brentford
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

23.5%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

24.7%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelsea's form might have worsened.

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brentford, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.3%	11.4%	6.3%

Chelsea - Brentford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Brentford (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (64 of 78 users predict this - 82.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.53% – 90.57%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (28 of 29 users predict this - 96.55%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 28 - 90.3%). Brentford (votes: 2 - 6.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 23. Chalobah T. 4. Adarabioyo T. 3. Cucurella M. 25. Caicedo M. 8. Fernandez E. 7. Neto P. 10. Palmer C. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro	1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 20. Ajer K. 22. Collins N. (C) 3. Henry R. 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 27. Janelt V. 24. Damsgaard M. 8. Jensen M. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 17. Andrey Santos 5. Badiashile B. 9. Delap L. 29. Fofana W. 32. George T. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)	45. Donovan R. 47. Furo K. 2. Hickey A. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 11. Nelson R. 19. Ouattara Da. 5. Pinnock E. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 4. van den Berg S.
Coaches
Rosenior L.	Andrews K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Joao Pedro ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
36', Schade K. 🟨,
45+3', Janelt V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Garnacho A. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
58', Adarabioyo T. ↓, Fofana W. ↑,
67', Cucurella M. 🟨,
74', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
76', 2 - 0, Palmer C. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Damsgaard M. ↓, Ouattara Da. ↑,
82', Schade K. ↓, Lewis-Potter K. ↑,
82', Henry R. ↓, Hickey A. ↑,
83', Fofana W. 🟨,
85', Fernandez E. ↓, Hato J. ↑,
85', James R. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
90+2', Palmer C. 🟨,
90+4', Yarmolyuk Y. ↓, Donovan R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 1.

Chelsea has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brentford is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chelsea is the team to beat.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Brentford: Carvalho F. (Knee Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Delap L. (Illness) Gittens J. (Illness) Gusto M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Brentford: Henderson J. (Ankle Injury) Onyeka F. (Rest)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.13% Brentford: 1.04%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10:4	6	9
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.32%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Brentford - the odds 4.96 are the expected chance of winning is 19.18%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English League Cup
14.01.26	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLTT
- Brentford FC
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Brentford - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Everton - Brentford	2:4 ✺
01.01.26	Brentford - Tottenham Hotspur	0:0 ✺
27.12.25	Brentford - Bournemouth	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2
06.04.25	Brentford - Chelsea	0:0
15.12.24	Chelsea - Brentford	2:1
02.03.24	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2
28.10.23	Chelsea - Brentford	0:2
26.04.23	Chelsea - Brentford	0:2
19.10.22	Brentford - Chelsea	0:0

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