Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25
	1.62	4.5	4.6
	1.55	4.7	5.5
	1.56	4.81	5.54	Watch
	1.57	4.2	4.8
	1.6	4.78	5.58	Watch
	1.57	4.33	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.63)	4.55 ↑ (4.3)	5.25 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
60.8%

Draw
21%

Chelsea
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

22.1%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	8.5%	5.3%

Manchester City - Chelsea Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Chelsea (2.22) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Man City (1.74) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (81 of 93 users predict this - 87.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.29% – 93.91%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (38 of 41 users predict this - 92.68%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 47 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 41 - 87.2%). Chelsea (votes: 3 - 6.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 20. Silva B. (C) 16. Rodri 4. Reijnders T. 10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 9. Haaland E.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 34. Acheampong J. 23. Chalobah T. 5. Badiashile B. 27. Gusto M. 24. James R. (C) 8. Fernandez E. 41. Estêvão 10. Palmer C. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 11. Doku J. 92. Heskey R. 45. Khusanov A. 82. Lewis R. 56. McAidoo R. 91. Mfuni S. 63. Mukasa D. 1. Trafford J. (G)	4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 9. Delap L. 49. Garnacho A. 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 50. Merrick M. (G) 44. Slonina G. (G)
Coaches
Guardiola P.	McFarlane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Reijnders T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Estêvão ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
51', Gvardiol J. ↓, Khusanov A. ↑,
52', James R. 🟨,
54', Dias R. 🟨,
62', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
62', Acheampong J. ↓, Hato J. ↑,
70', Reijnders T. ↓, Doku J. ↑,
79', Delap L. 🟨,
79', Nunes M. 🟨,
81', Dias R. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
90+3', Silva B. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Fernandez E. ⚽,
90+5', Fernandez E. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 4.

Man City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Chelsea has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chelsea may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the team to beat.

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (International duty) Bobb O. (Hamstring Injury) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Marmoush O. (International duty) Stones J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Yellow Cards) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Man City: Nico (Injury) Savinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Cucurella M. (Thigh Injury) Hato J. (Injury)

We predict that Man City will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:16. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 26:8. (average 2.2:0.7).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 17.65% Chelsea: 5.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13:5	8	15
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
01.01.26	Sunderland - Manchester City	0:0 ✺
27.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Manchester City - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Manchester City - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Crystal Palace - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWWW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
16.12.25	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
13.12.25	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.01.25	Manchester City - Chelsea	3:1
18.08.24	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:2
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	4:2
English FA Cup
20.04.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:0
English Premier League
17.02.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1
12.11.23	Chelsea - Manchester City	4:4
21.05.23	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:0

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