Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: The Valley (London)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Charlton Athletic		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	7	5	1.35
	6.25	4.6	1.41
	7.9	5.4	1.37
	20.48	6.82	1.15	Watch
	7	4.6	1.36
	7.76	5.26	1.41	Watch
	8	5	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.2 ↑ (7.71)	5.24 ↑ (5.15)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Charlton Athletic
10.4%

Draw
18.3%

Chelsea
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.2%

18.3%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.6%

17.4%

73%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Charlton Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlton Athletic than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.2%	93.7%

Charlton Athletic - Chelsea Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mannion W. (G) 36. Gough K. 5. Jones L. 17. Bell A. 6. Coventry C. 28. Bree J. 14. Carey S. 10. Docherty G. (C) 7. Campbell T. 11. Leaburn M. 23. Kelman C.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 21. Hato J. 25. Caicedo M. (C) 17. Andrey Santos 11. Gittens J. 40. Buonanotte F. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M.
Substitutes
18. Anderson K. 30. Apter R. 8. Berry L. 37. Fullah I. 3. Gillesphey M. 41. Knibbs H. 21. Maynard-Brewer A. (G) 22. Olaofe T. 26. Rankin-Costello J.	23. Chalobah T. 9. Delap L. 14. Essugo D. 41. Estêvão 8. Fernandez E. 29. Fofana W. 20. Joao Pedro 7. Neto P. 1. Sanchez R. (G)
Coaches
Jones N.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Badiashile B. 🟨,
31', Docherty G. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Hato J. ⚽, Guiu M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
50', 0 - 2, Adarabioyo T. ⚽, Buonanotte F. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Leaburn M. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Guiu M. ⚽,
66', Gittens J. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
66', Coventry C. ↓, Anderson K. ↑,
66', Kelman C. ↓, Gillesphey M. ↑,
67', Docherty G. ↓, Rankin-Costello J. ↑,
69', Buonanotte F. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
69', Guiu M. ↓, Delap L. ↑,
74', Bell A. ↓, Olaofe T. ↑,
82', Campbell T. ↓, Knibbs H. ↑,
85', Garnacho A. ↓, Neto P. ↑,
85', Hato J. ↓, Fofana W. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 4, Neto P. ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
90+4', 1 - 5, Fernandez E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Charlton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chelsea has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chelsea is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Chelsea: 7.55% Charlton: 0.32%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Charlton Athletic
English League Championship
04.01.26	Blackburn Rovers - Charlton Athletic	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Coventry City	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Portsmouth - Charlton Athletic	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Norwich City - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTLLW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTLT

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