Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 5
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	Play6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Sporza
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV3+, Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Chelsea		Gent

	1	X	2
	1.2	6.5	13
	1.2	7	10
	1.2	7	12
	1.2	6.97	14.35
	1.2	7.2	10.54	Watch
	1.29	5.5	9
	1.23	7.22	11.7
	1.2	7	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.35)	6.8 ↑ (5.15)	11.57 ↑ (7.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
77.9%

Draw
13.9%

Gent
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

18.2%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

17.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelsea's performance.

Gent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelsea that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gent than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.9%	2.7%	5.4%

Chelsea - Gent Predictions

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (34 of 37 users predict this - 91.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.09% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jorgensen F. (G) 2. Disasi A. (C) 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 40. Veiga R. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 31. Casadei C. 7. Neto P. 14. Joao Felix 18. Nkunku C. 10. Mudryk M.	33. Roef D. (G) 12. Gambor H. 4. Watanabe T. 13. Mitrovic S. (C) 23. Torunarigha J. 15. Ito A. 16. Delorge-Knieper M. 22. Fadiga N. 19. Surdez F. 3. Brown A. 9. Gudjohnsen A.
Substitutes
47. Bergstrom L. (G) 25. Caicedo M. 6. Colwill L. 3. Cucurella M. 33. Dyer K. 8. Fernandez E. 32. George T. 38. Guiu M. 11. Madueke N. 1. Sanchez R. (G)	20. Araujo T. 21. Dean M. 27. De Vlieger T. 25. Fortuna N. 6. Gandelman O. 8. Gerkens P. 24. Kums S. 18. Samoise M. 1. Schmidt D. (G) 11. Sonko M. L. 7. Vancsa Z. 29. Varela H.
Coaches
Maresca E.	Vrancken W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Veiga R. ⚽, Mudryk M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', 2 - 0, Neto P. ⚽, Disasi A. (A),
50', 2 - 1, Watanabe T. ⚽, Gudjohnsen A. (A),
63', 3 - 1, Nkunku C. ⚽, Veiga R. (A),
64', Gudjohnsen A. ↓, Dean M. ↑,
64', Fadiga N. ↓, Araujo T. ↑,
70', 4 - 1, Dewsbury-Hall K. ⚽,
72', Disasi A. 🟨,
78', Surdez F. ↓, Kums S. ↑,
78', Delorge-Knieper M. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
80', Nkunku C. ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
80', Neto P. ↓, George T. ↑,
89', Gambor H. ↓, Samoise M. ↑,
90', 4 - 2, Gandelman O. ⚽, Dean M. (A),
90+5', Brown A. 🟨,

Preview

Chelsea in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gent is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Chelsea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Chelsea is certain favorite.

There will not play in Chelsea: James R. (Muscle Injury) Kellyman O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Gent: Kums S. (Calf Injury) Omgba A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gent: Hjulsager A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
28.09.24	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.24	Chelsea - Barrow	5:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.24	West Ham United - Chelsea	0:3 ✺
14.09.24	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Chelsea - Crystal Palace	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWT
- AA Gent
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
29.09.24	Gent - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:0 ✺
26.09.24	Cercle Brugge - Gent	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Club Brugge - Gent	2:4 ✺
15.09.24	Gent - KV Mechelen	2:0 ✺
01.09.24	Gent - Royal Antwerp	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLWWT

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