What is the expert prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Chelsea vs Leeds United. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Chelsea vs Leeds United Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, April 26, 2026)

Match Info

FA Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, One Africa, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
Benin	Benin TV
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 5
Botswana	YTV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Ecuador	ESPN
Eswatini	Eswatini TV
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Gambia	GRTS Gambia
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Discovery+
Japan	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, SuperSport 2
Liberia	Liberia National TV
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malawi	MBC
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, SKY NET Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mauritius	MBC 1
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	NTA Sports, Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV4
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	Hub Premier 4, HUB Sports 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1, ELTA Sports 3
Tanzania	UTV, ZBC 2 Tanzania, ZBC Tanzania
Turkey	Tabii
Uganda	NBS Sport 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Chelsea		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.7
	1.95	3.55	3.95
	1.99	3.69	3.95
	2.07	3.56	3.53	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
	2.03	3.7	3.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.71)	3.58 ↓ (3.94)	3.78 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
48%

Draw
26.7%

Leeds United
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.9%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

26.6%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelsea's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.9%	14.3%	17.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Leeds will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Leeds (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Chelsea (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 2 - 40%). Leeds (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 23. Chalobah T. 4. Adarabioyo T. 3. Cucurella M. 45. Lavia R. 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro	1. Lucas Perri (G) 24. Justin J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 11. Aaronson B. 19. Okafor N. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 17. Andrey Santos 9. Delap L. 55. Derry J. 14. Essugo D. 29. Fofana W. 21. Hato J. 10. Palmer C. 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)	23. Bornauw S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 6. Rodon J. 18. Stach A.
Coaches
McFarlane C.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Fernandez E. ⚽, Neto P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Justin J. ↓, Rodon J. ↑,
46', Bijol J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
60', Caicedo M. 🟨,
66', Lavia R. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
71', Garnacho A. ↓, Palmer C. ↑,
74', Tanaka A. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
74', Okafor N. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
76', Struijk P. 🟨,
77', Palmer C. 🟨,
78', Ampadu E. 🟨,
84', Nmecha L. 🟨,
86', Aaronson B. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
90+4', Bogle J. 🟨,
90+4', Neto P. 🟨,
90+8', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 2.

Recent form of Chelsea has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leeds is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chelsea might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Estêvão (Hamstring Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Jorgensen F. (Groin Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Leeds: Gruev I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: James R. (Hamstring Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Palmer C. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bogle J. (Ankle Injury) Bornauw S. (Ankle Injury) Stach A. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 2.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 2.4:1.4).

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Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 55.36%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
21.04.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Chelsea - Port Vale	7:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.03.26	Everton - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Leeds United
English Premier League
22.04.26	Bournemouth - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
13.04.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
05.04.26	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
21.03.26	Leeds United - Brentford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2
03.12.25	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:1
English FA Cup
28.02.24	Chelsea - Leeds United	3:2
English Premier League
04.03.23	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0
21.08.22	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:0
11.05.22	Leeds United - Chelsea	0:3
11.12.21	Chelsea - Leeds United	3:2

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