Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Brentford Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brentford		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.60	2.60
	2.50	3.60	2.60
	2.60	3.60	2.60
	2.61	3.72	2.70
	2.77	3.79	2.46	Watch
	2.55	3.60	2.70
	2.74	3.64	2.49	Watch
	2.60	3.70	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.77)	3.66 ↓ (3.77)	2.6 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brentford
36.8%

Draw
26.3%

Chelsea
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

25.5%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

25.4%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.3%	36.2%	42.6%

Brentford - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Brentford will win (votes: 10 - 21.3%). Chelsea will win (votes: 20 - 42.6%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 36.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 28.5% – 56.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.52) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (1.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Chelsea (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Brentford (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.44) (votes: 97%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.50) (votes: 95%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Chelsea (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 44. Schuster J. 20. Ajer K. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 6. Yarmolyuk Y. 27. Janelt V. (C) 19. Anthony J. 24. Damsgaard M. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.	1. Martinez E. (G) 3. Fofana W. 5. Lacroix M. 6. Colwill L. (C) 7. Neto P. 14. Henderson J. 4. Barco V. 29. Chavarria P. 10. Palmer C. 17. Rogers M. 18. Welbeck D.
Substitutes
31. Balcombe E. (G) 14. Carvalho F. 25. Diouf M. 48. Fredrick B. 3. Henry R. 2. Hickey A. 11. Ouattara Da. 18. Sangare M. 13. Wilson C.	34. Acheampong J. 41. Estêvão 11. Gittens J. 27. Gusto M. 21. Hato J. 45. Lavia R. 32. Nicoll-Jazuli M. 39. Penders M. (G) 23. Quenda G.
Coaches
Andrews K.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Anthony J. ⚽, Schuster J. (A),
69', Kayode M. ↓, Hickey A. ↑,
69', Yarmolyuk Y. ↓, Sangare M. ↑,
71', Welbeck D. ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
71', Fofana W. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
81', Anthony J. ↓, Ouattara Da. ↑,
81', Lewis-Potter K. ↓, Diouf M. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Thiago I. ⚽,
84', Thiago I. 🟨,
85', Sangare M. 🟨,
87', Barco V. ↓, Nicoll-Jazuli M. ↑,
87', Neto P. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
87', Damsgaard M. ↓, Carvalho F. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Carvalho F. ⚽, Schade K. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 0.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Brentford may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Brentford has faced a series of away games on the road.

Recently, Chelsea has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Brentford: Collins N. (Injury) Dasilva J. (Injury) Furo K. (Surgery) Jensen M. (Muscle Injury) van den Berg S. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Chelsea: Joao Pedro (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Injury) Emegha E. (Injury) Henderson J. (Wrist Injury) Palestra M. (Injury).

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Brentford has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:22 (averaging 1.1:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Brentford against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with 6:9 goals (averaging 0.9:1.3 per game).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.71% Brentford: 1.05%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10:4	6	9
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.85%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brentford FC
English League Cup
15.09.26	Reading - Brentford	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Brentford - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Leeds United - Brentford	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Birmingham City - Brentford	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTTTW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
12.09.26	Chelsea - Hull City	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
09.09.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	6:3 ✺
English Premier League
06.09.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:3 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.26	Chelsea - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
17.01.26	Chelsea - Brentford	2:0
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2
06.04.25	Brentford - Chelsea	0:0
15.12.24	Chelsea - Brentford	2:1
02.03.24	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2
28.10.23	Chelsea - Brentford	0:2
26.04.23	Chelsea - Brentford	0:2

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