Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Canal+, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Amazon Prime Video, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
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Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
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Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
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New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Amazon Prime Video, Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1, Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Leeds United		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.63
	2.5	3.5	2.65
	2.68	3.35	2.68
	2.65	3.47	2.74	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.63
	2.7	3.48	2.8	Watch
	2.57	3.4	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (3.35)	3.38 ↓ (3.81)	2.69 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
36.4%

Draw
28.2%

Manchester United
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

25%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

24.4%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leeds United's performance.

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leeds United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.8%	28.8%	42.3%

Leeds United - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 14 - 28%). Man Utd will win (votes: 21 - 42%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 28.3% – 55.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Man Utd (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Man Utd (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Man Utd (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Perri (G) 23. Bornauw S. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. (C) 24. Justin J. 11. Aaronson B. 44. Gruev I. 18. Stach A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	31. Lammens S. (G) 15. Yoro L. 26. Heaven A. 6. Martinez Li. (C) 2. Dalot D. 18. Casemiro 25. Ugarte M. 23. Shaw L. 13. Dorgu P. 10. Cunha M. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
25. Byram S. 42. Chambers S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 20. Harrison J. 8. Longstaff S. 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 38. Fletcher J. 39. Fletcher T. 33. Fredricson T. 72. Kukonki G. 61. Lacey S. 12. Malacia T. 70. Mantato B. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Dorgu P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', 1 - 0, Aaronson B. ⚽, Struijk P. (A),
63', Yoro L. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Cunha M. ⚽, Zirkzee J. (A),
75', Okafor N. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
80', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
80', Bornauw S. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
87', Aaronson B. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Leeds: Ampadu E. (Yellow Cards) James D. (Hamstring Injury) Longstaff S. (Calf Injury) Rodon J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Diallo A. (International duty) Maguire H. (Hamstring Injury) Mazraoui N. (International duty) Mbeumo B. (International duty) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Fernandes B. (Thigh Injury) Mainoo K. (Calf Injury) Mount M. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:25. (average 0.8:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
12	Manchester Utd	5	1	2	2	8:8	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester United - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 46.63%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Brentford - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Leeds United - Liverpool	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TTWTT
- Manchester United
English Premier League
30.12.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
15.12.25	Manchester United - Bournemouth	4:4 ✺
08.12.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.25	Manchester United - Leeds United	0:0
12.07.23	Manchester United - Leeds United	2:0
English Premier League
12.02.23	Leeds United - Manchester United	0:2
08.02.23	Manchester United - Leeds United	2:2
20.02.22	Leeds United - Manchester United	2:4
14.08.21	Manchester United - Leeds United	5:1
25.04.21	Leeds United - Manchester United	0:0

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