Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 18 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Orsato D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
Italy	Sky Sport Football, Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Chelsea		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.55
	2.8	3.4	2.4
	2.7	3.85	2.55
	2.77	3.6	2.54
	2.71	3.55	2.7
	2.8	3.4	2.5
	2.76	3.52	2.47
	2.7	3.6	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.55)	3.57 ↑ (3.41)	2.55 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
35.3%

Draw
27%

Real Madrid
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

27.8%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.1%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	18.4%	70.1%

Chelsea - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 87 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 10 - 11.5%). Real will win (votes: 61 - 70.1%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 18.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 60.5% – 79.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Chelsea is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Real is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Chelsea has already of round of 16, already of qtrs, a small chance of semis (7%), a very small chance of final (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Real has already of round of 16, already of qtrs, a good chance of semis (93%), a chance of final (34%), a chance of win league (22%).

This event has big quality 83, very big importance 100, very big match rating 92. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelsea won 2.

Chelsea has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Real is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Chelsea: Aubameyang P. (Inactive) Badiashile B. (Inactive) Broja A. (Knee Injury) Chilwell B. (Red Card) Koulibaly K. (Injury) Madueke N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Mendy F. (Calf Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Chelsea won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Chelsea won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
15.04.23	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.04.23	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
08.04.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	1:0 ✺
04.04.23	Chelsea - Liverpool	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
15.04.23	Cádiz - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.04.23	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
08.04.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.04.23	Barcelona - Real Madrid	0:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.04.23	Real Madrid - Valladolid	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.04.23	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:0
12.04.22	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:3 ET
06.04.22	Chelsea - Real Madrid	1:3
05.05.21	Chelsea - Real Madrid	2:0
27.04.21	Real Madrid - Chelsea	1:1
International Champions Cup
30.07.16	Real Madrid - Chelsea	3:2
07.08.13	Real Madrid - Chelsea	3:1

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