Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Star Sports 3 Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport 6, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 7
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, NOW Premier League 2, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2, SÝN Sport
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports 3, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, TeleXitos, UNIVERSO NOW
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1
World	Sport 24, Sport 24 At Sea


	Chelsea		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.7	2.3
	2.85	3.7	2.3
	2.85	3.8	2.35
	2.96	3.75	2.38
	1.67	3.68	5.13	Watch
	2.98	3.88	2.37	Watch
	2.93	3.75	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.84)	3.75 ↑ (3.6)	2.73 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
36.6%

Draw
26.7%

Liverpool
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

26.5%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

26.8%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.2%	39.4%	39.4%

Chelsea - Liverpool Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 12 - 19%). Liverpool will win (votes: 26 - 41.3%). It will Tie (votes: 25 - 39.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 29.1% – 53.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 9 - 29%). Liverpool (votes: 8 - 25.8%). Tie (votes: 14 - 45.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Chelsea (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Liverpool (1.72) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Chelsea (1.62) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Liverpool (1.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Liverpool (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 13 - 30.2%). Liverpool (votes: 16 - 37.2%). Tie (votes: 14 - 32.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 34. Acheampong J. 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 27. Gusto M. 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 8. Fernandez E. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro	25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 12. Bradley C. 5. Konate I. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 6. Kerkez M. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 11. Salah M. 8. Szoboszlai D. 18. Gakpo C. 9. Isak A.
Substitutes
40. Buonanotte F. 56. Emenalo L. 41. Estêvão 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 45. Lavia R. 44. Slonina G. (G)	14. Chiesa F. 22. Ekitike H. 3. Endo W. 30. Frimpong J. 2. Gomez J. 17. Jones C. 26. Robertson A. 7. Wirtz F. 28. Woodman F. (G)
Coaches
Maresca E.	Slot A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Caicedo M. ⚽, Gusto M. (A),
34', Bradley C. 🟨,
40', Maresca E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bradley C. ↓, Wirtz F. ↑,
55', Badiashile B. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
55', Kerkez M. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
56', Konate I. ↓, Jones C. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Gakpo C. ⚽, Isak A. (A),
68', Acheampong J. ↓, Hato J. ↑,
74', Isak A. ↓, Ekitike H. ↑,
75', Joao Pedro ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
75', Garnacho A. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
75', Neto P. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
79', Szoboszlai D. 🟨,
82', Slot A. 🟨,
86', Mac Allister A. ↓, Endo W. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Estêvão ⚽, Cucurella M. (A),
90+7', Maresca E. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Chelsea: Adarabioyo T. (Calf Injury) Chalobah T. (Red Card) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Hamstring Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Palmer C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Alisson (Groin Injury) Chambers L. (Back Injury) Leoni G. (Knee Injury) Scanlon C. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Andrey Santos (Injury) Fofana W. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Liverpool: Chiesa F. (Knock) Ekitike H. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Chelsea - Benfica	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Lincoln City - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLWLL
- Liverpool FC
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Galatasaray - Liverpool	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Crystal Palace - Liverpool	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Liverpool - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Liverpool - Everton	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
04.05.25	Chelsea - Liverpool	3:1
20.10.24	Liverpool - Chelsea	2:1
English League Cup
25.02.24	Chelsea - Liverpool	0:1 ET
English Premier League
31.01.24	Liverpool - Chelsea	4:1
13.08.23	Chelsea - Liverpool	1:1
04.04.23	Chelsea - Liverpool	0:0
21.01.23	Liverpool - Chelsea	0:0

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