Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
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Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
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France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
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Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	TV3+, Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
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Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
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Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24


	Chelsea		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.85	3.75	4
	1.78	4.1	4.3
	1.87	3.83	4.13
	1.78	4.01	4.55	Watch
	1.83	3.9	3.8
	1.85	4.11	4.07	Watch
	1.76	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.84)	3.96 ↑ (3.85)	4.17 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
52.9%

Draw
24.2%

Aston Villa
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

24.7%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

26.5%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20.3%	29.7%

Chelsea - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 32 - 50%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 19 - 29.7%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 20.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 37.8% – 62.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (3.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Aston Villa (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Aston Villa (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 5. Badiashile B. 23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 25. Caicedo M. 8. Fernandez E. 7. Neto P. 10. Palmer C. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 17. Malen D.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 9. Delap L. 41. Estêvão 29. Fofana W. 11. Gittens J. 27. Gusto M. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)	40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 12. Digne L. 16. Garcia A. 53. Hemmings G. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 24. Onana A. 19. Sancho J. 11. Watkins O.
Coaches
Maresca E.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Cash M. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Joao Pedro ⚽, James R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', Rogers M. 🟨,
57', James R. 🟨,
58', Buendia E. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
59', Malen D. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
59', McGinn J. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
68', Chalobah T. 🟨,
69', Cucurella M. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
69', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
69', Garnacho A. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
71', Caicedo M. 🟨,
71', Delap L. 🟨,
72', Palmer C. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
78', Kamara B. 🟨,
83', Maatsen I. ↓, Digne L. ↑,
83', Kamara B. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),
90+4', Fernandez E. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 2.

Chelsea has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aston Villa is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

In this match, Chelsea is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Guessand E. (International duty) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury) Torres P. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Elliott H. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:17. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.5:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 51.66%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
20.12.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
16.12.25	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
13.12.25	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Atalanta - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWLT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	West Ham United - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Basel - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
22.02.25	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:1
01.12.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	3:0
27.04.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:2
English FA Cup
07.02.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:3
26.01.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:0
English Premier League
24.09.23	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:1
01.04.23	Chelsea - Aston Villa	0:2

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