Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 41

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)


	Cheltenham Town		Ipswich Town

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.33	1.44
	7	4.4	1.43
	7.8	4.5	1.43
	8.01	4.45	1.45
	7.5	4.33	1.42
	7.4	4.5	1.43	Watch
	7	4.5	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.46 ↑ (4.51)	4.43 ↑ (3.75)	1.43 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
12.7%

Draw
21.3%

Ipswich Town
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

24.9%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

25.5%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cheltenham Town's form might have worsened.

Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ipswich Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ipswich Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	7.7%	84.6%

Cheltenham Town - Ipswich Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Ipswich Town will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Cheltenham has the most likely position - 17 (22.02%), project points - 51, currently - 45, a very small chance of relegated (1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Ipswich has the most likely position - 1 (39.94%), project points - 95, currently - 81, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), a good chance of promoted (85%), a chance of win league (40%).

This event has small quality 23, importance 48, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Cheltenham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ipswich in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Ipswich could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ipswich is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League One
07.04.23	Lincoln City - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
01.04.23	Cheltenham Town - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
29.03.23	Cheltenham Town - Sheffield Wednesday	2:2 ✺
18.03.23	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	3:1 ✺
11.03.23	Peterborough United - Cheltenham Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 LTTWW
- Ipswich Town
English League One
07.04.23	Ipswich Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
01.04.23	Derby County - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Ipswich Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Bolton Wanderers - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
07.03.23	Ipswich Town - Accrington Stanley	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.11.22	Ipswich Town - Cheltenham Town	1:1
22.02.22	Ipswich Town - Cheltenham Town	0:0
17.08.21	Cheltenham Town - Ipswich Town	2:1

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