Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 21

Date: 6 February 2024, Tuesday


	Chesham United		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	3.5
	1.87	3.75	3.4	Watch
	1.94	3.65	3.2
	1.93	3.97	3.25
	1.91	3.64	3.35
	1.87	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.61)	3.76 ↓ (4.05)	3.35 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
48.6%

Draw
24.2%

Merthyr Town
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

22.4%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

21.4%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chesham United's form might have worsened.

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Merthyr Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chesham United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Merthyr Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Chesham United - Merthyr Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chesham will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Merthyr will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chesham won 4.

Chesham in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Merthyr is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Chesham have a series of home games.

Chesham will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Chesham to win the game is with odds 1.8.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Chesham won 9 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 34-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Chesham won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 20-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English Southern League South Division
03.02.24	Winchester City - Chesham United	0:3 ✺
27.01.24	Chesham United - Walton & Hersham	3:0 ✺
13.01.24	Hungerford Town - Chesham United	0:1 ✺
06.01.24	Didcot Town - Chesham United	1:1 ✺
01.01.24	Chesham United - Harrow Borough	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWTW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
03.02.24	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
27.01.24	Merthyr Town - Didcot Town	4:0 ✺
20.01.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	3:2 ✺
13.01.24	Merthyr Town - Beaconsfield Town	2:3 ✺
06.01.24	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
09.09.23	Merthyr Town - Chesham United	1:3
07.03.23	Chesham United - Merthyr Town	1:2
11.02.23	Merthyr Town - Chesham United	0:1
09.04.22	Merthyr Town - Chesham United	0:3
21.08.21	Chesham United - Merthyr Town	3:1
08.02.20	Chesham United - Merthyr Town	2:0
14.09.19	Merthyr Town - Chesham United	1:3

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