Match Info

League Two - Round 40

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: SMH Group Stadium (Chesterfield)

Referee: Humphries A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Chesterfield		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.75	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.49	4.82	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.8
	1.76	3.6	4.65	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.78)	3.58 ↓ (3.85)	4.75 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesterfield
54%

Draw
26.2%

Carlisle United
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

24.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

23.7%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chesterfield - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Chesterfield will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Boot R. (G) 7. Mandeville L. 21. Palmer A. 5. Grimes J. (C) 19. Gordon L. 26. Metcalfe J. 13. Fleck J. 34. Olakigbe M. 28. Banks O. 17. Dobra A. 9. Grigg W.	13. Breeze G. (G) 4. Thomas T. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. McArthur C. 2. Davies A. 16. Vela J. 43. Whelan C. 45. Fusire S. 40. Harris K. 17. Hugill J. 9. Kelly G.
Substitutes
11. Colclough R. 18. Duffy D. 10. Jacobs M. 33. Madden P. 8. Oldaker D. 27. Pepple A. 1. Thompson M. (G)	26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 18. Ellis J. 44. Embleton E. 8. Guy C. 1. Lewis H. (G) 20. Scott C.
Coaches
Cook P.	Hughes M

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Fusire S. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
40', Embleton E. 🟥,
45+4', Lavelle S. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kelly G. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
70', Hugill J. 🟨,
73', 1 - 0, Mandeville L. ⚽,
75', Grigg W. ↓, Madden P. ↑,
75', Fleck J. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
75', Whelan C. ↓, Guy C. ↑,
76', Vela J. ↓, Barclay B. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Madden P. ⚽,
84', Dobra A. ↓, Colclough R. ↑,
84', Banks O. ↓, Jacobs M. ↑,
84', Olakigbe M. ↓, Duffy D. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Hugill J. ⚽,
90+3', Thomas T. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Chesterfield in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Carlisle is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chesterfield could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Chesterfield is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Chesterfield to win the game is with odds 1.75.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chesterfield won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:7 (average 1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Chesterfield won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 4 are the expected chance of winning is 23.33%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesterfield
English League Two
29.03.25	Barrow - Chesterfield	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Chesterfield - Harrogate Town	0:0 ✺
15.03.25	Notts County - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
11.03.25	Salford City - Chesterfield	0:4 ✺
08.03.25	Chesterfield - Newport County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTWWW
- Carlisle United
English League Two
29.03.25	Doncaster Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
25.03.25	Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Carlisle United - Bromley	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Carlisle United - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Harrogate Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
14.12.24	Carlisle United - Chesterfield	0:2
17.02.18	Carlisle United - Chesterfield	2:0
28.10.17	Chesterfield - Carlisle United	2:2
English League Cup
11.08.15	Carlisle United - Chesterfield	3:1 ET
English League One
04.02.12	Carlisle United - Chesterfield	N/A

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