Match Info

League Two - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Notts County		Chesterfield

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.25	2.98	Watch
	2.34	3.32	3.14
	2.34	3.21	2.96	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.3	3.24	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.45)	3.23 ↑ (3.12)	3.05 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
40.6%

Draw
28.8%

Chesterfield
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Chesterfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Notts County - Chesterfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Chesterfield will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Notts County: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belshaw J. (G) 12. Ness L. 3. McDonald R. (C) 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 8. Norburn O. 20. Robertson S. 10. Jones J. 14. Iorpenda T. 16. Luker J. 29. Jatta A.	23. Boot R. (G) 44. Donacien J. 6. McFadzean K. 26. Swinkels S. 19. Gordon L. 36. Braybrooke S. 8. Stirk R. 24. Markanday D. 4. Naylor T. (C) 28. Berry-McNally J. 10. Bonis L.
Substitutes
47. Bennetts K. 19. Dennis M. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 17. Kouhyar Q. 39. Ndlovu L. 18. Palmer M.	29. Curtis S. 11. Duffy D. 13. Fleck J. 9. Grigg W. 1. Hemming Z. (G) 7. Mandeville L. 46. Pearce T.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Cook P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Stirk R. ↓, Fleck J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', McFadzean K. 🟨,
63', Donacien J. ↓, Curtis S. ↑,
67', Jones J. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
68', Jatta A. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
72', Berry-McNally J. ↓, Mandeville L. ↑,
72', Naylor T. ↓, Duffy D. ↑,
72', Bonis L. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
79', Norburn O. ↓, Palmer M. ↑,
79', Luker J. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
90+8', Grant C. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1.

In recent matches, Notts County has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chesterfield is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Notts County: Macari L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Chesterfield: Hobson B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Notts County: Platt M. (Inactive) Tangen H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chesterfield: Ladapo F. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Chesterfield: 9.07%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17:14	3	15

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.89%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Notts County - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Colchester United - Notts County	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Notts County - Barnet	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Cambridge United - Notts County	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWLL
- Chesterfield
English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Swindon Town - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Fleetwood Town - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Chesterfield - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1
14.03.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:3
26.12.25	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:0
15.03.25	Notts County - Chesterfield	1:2
12.10.24	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:2
English National League
13.05.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:3 penalties
11.02.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	1:2

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