What is the expert prediction for Notts County vs Chesterfield?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Notts County vs Chesterfield. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

How to watch Notts County vs Chesterfield live?

Check our broadcast section for official streaming options and live coverage details.

Notts County vs Chesterfield Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, May 15, 2026)

Match Info

League Two - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 1, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	NOW
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Notts County		Chesterfield

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.25	2.98	Watch
	2.34	3.32	3.14
	2.34	3.21	2.96	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.3	3.24	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.45)	3.23 ↑ (3.12)	3.05 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Notts County
40.6%

Draw
28.8%

Chesterfield
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Chesterfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

banner

Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Chesterfield will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Notts County: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belshaw J. (G) 12. Ness L. 3. McDonald R. (C) 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 8. Norburn O. 20. Robertson S. 10. Jones J. 14. Iorpenda T. 16. Luker J. 29. Jatta A.	23. Boot R. (G) 44. Donacien J. 6. McFadzean K. 26. Swinkels S. 19. Gordon L. 36. Braybrooke S. 8. Stirk R. 24. Markanday D. 4. Naylor T. (C) 28. Berry-McNally J. 10. Bonis L.
Substitutes
47. Bennetts K. 19. Dennis M. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 17. Kouhyar Q. 39. Ndlovu L. 18. Palmer M.	29. Curtis S. 11. Duffy D. 13. Fleck J. 9. Grigg W. 1. Hemming Z. (G) 7. Mandeville L. 46. Pearce T.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Cook P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Stirk R. ↓, Fleck J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', McFadzean K. 🟨,
63', Donacien J. ↓, Curtis S. ↑,
67', Jones J. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
68', Jatta A. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
72', Berry-McNally J. ↓, Mandeville L. ↑,
72', Naylor T. ↓, Duffy D. ↑,
72', Bonis L. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
79', Norburn O. ↓, Palmer M. ↑,
79', Luker J. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
90+8', Grant C. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1.

In recent matches, Notts County has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chesterfield is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Notts County: Macari L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Chesterfield: Hobson B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Notts County: Platt M. (Inactive) Tangen H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chesterfield: Ladapo F. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

banner

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.89%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Notts County - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Colchester United - Notts County	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Notts County - Barnet	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Cambridge United - Notts County	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWLL
- Chesterfield
English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Swindon Town - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Chesterfield - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Fleetwood Town - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Chesterfield - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1
14.03.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:3
26.12.25	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:0
15.03.25	Notts County - Chesterfield	1:2
12.10.24	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:2
English National League
13.05.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	2:3 penalties
11.02.23	Chesterfield - Notts County	1:2

Upcoming Matches