Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 26

Date: 25 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Bannister A. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.37	3.4	2.8
	2.4	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.41	3.4	2.81	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.8
	2.4	3.4	2.78	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (3.1)	3.41 ↓ (3.47)	2.81 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
39.1%

Draw
27.5%

Milton Keynes Dons
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

27%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

25.4%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlisle United's performance.

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milton Keynes Dons might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlisle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milton Keynes Dons could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). MK Dons will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 4. Thomas T. 3. Harper C. 16. Vela J. 43. Whelan C. 39. Wearne S. 40. Harris K. 19. Dennis M. 11. Jones J.	1. Trueman C. (G) 17. Offord L. 32. Sanders J. 23. Maguire L. 16. Nemane A. 11. Crowley D. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 14. Tomlinson J. 27. White J. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 21. Orsi-Dadomo D.
Substitutes
37. Bevan J. 18. Ellis J. 44. Embleton E. 45. Fusire S. 8. Guy C. 9. Kelly G. 1. Lewis H. (G)	10. Kelly L. 7. Leko J. 38. Lewis-Burgess K. 15. MacGillivray C. (G) 18. O'Reilly T. 34. Tripp C. 35. Waller C.
Coaches
Hughes M	Gladwin B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', Vela J. 🟨,
6', 0 - 1, Tomlinson J. ⚽, Nemane A. (A),
8', Nemane A. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Dennis M. ⚽, Davies A. (A),
37', 1 - 2, Gilbey A. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 2, Harris K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', White J. ↓, Kelly L. ↑,
74', Nemane A. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
77', Vela J. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
87', Wearne S. ↓, Guy C. ↑,
87', Whelan C. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
87', Jones J. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
88', Crowley D. ↓, O'Reilly T. ↑,

Preview

Postponed due to unsuitable ground.

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.

The competitors look crappy now.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7:11 (average 0.9:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:4 (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
22.03.25	Carlisle United - Bromley	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Carlisle United - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Harrogate Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
04.03.25	Carlisle United - Walsall	1:1 ✺
27.02.25	Barrow - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLTW
- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
22.03.25	Cheltenham Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Port Vale - Milton Keynes Dons	3:0 ✺
08.03.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
04.03.25	Accrington Stanley - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Colchester United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
24.08.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Carlisle United	3:0
16.02.19	Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:3
08.12.18	Milton Keynes Dons - Carlisle United	2:0
English League One
28.01.14	Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons	3:0
22.10.13	Milton Keynes Dons - Carlisle United	0:1
23.02.13	Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1
01.09.12	Milton Keynes Dons - Carlisle United	2:0

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