Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Cartagena J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz
Vietnam	TV 360


	Cienciano		Los Chankas

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	7.50	Watch
	1.33	4.80	6.75
	1.34	5.25	8.00	Watch
	1.35	5.13	8.98
	1.43	4.7	6.2	Watch
	1.31	5.05	8.85
	1.37	4.86	7.67	Watch
	1.33	4.90	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.43)	4.93 ↑ (4.2)	7.59 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
68.9%

Draw
18.9%

Los Chankas
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

22%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

16.4%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Los Chankas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-20.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cienciano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Los Chankas than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Los Chankas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Cienciano - Los Chankas Predictions

Users Predictions: Cienciano will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 22. Cabello C. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Becerra K. 13. Nunez C. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 19. Succar M. 7. Souza Espana C. 88. Barreto G. 11. Bandiera N. 21. Garces C. (C)	1. Camacho H. (G) 30. Kaufman M. 2. Gonzalez H. 33. Pimienta C. 27. Barrios K. 17. Velarde C. 5. Palomino J. 18. Takeuchi O. (C) 20. Torres M. 6. Ayarza A. 10. Torres F.
Substitutes
26. Aguilar R. 14. Cavero S. 99. Colunga N. 1. Falcon G. (G) 18. La Torre D. 29. Robles A. 25. Salazar R. 17. Sandoval R. 27. Yovera A.	4. Campos A. 16. Chavez A. 77. Espinoza Vega F. E. 26. Gonzales D. 7. Ospina J. 12. Pretel L. (G) 11. Quintero J. 24. Rizzo G. 15. Sanchez K.
Coaches
Melgarejo H.	Bazalar J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 14th and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 2.

In recent outings, Cienciano has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Los Chankas has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cienciano may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cienciano enters as the overwhelming favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano has recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:12 (averaging 1.9:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cienciano against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 21:4 goals (averaging 2.6:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Peruvian Liga 1 for now

Cienciano: 1.02% Los Chankas: 0.81%

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Cienciano	10	2	2	6	12:18	-6	8
15	Los Chankas	10	2	2	6	11:24	-13	8

Last Results with these Odds

Cienciano - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.73%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
23.09.26	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Cienciano	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	Cienciano - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
04.09.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:5 ✺
30.08.26	Cienciano - Cusco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL
- CD Los Chankas
Peruvian Liga 1
12.09.26	Los Chankas - Cajamarca	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Sporting Cristal - Los Chankas	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Los Chankas - Juan Pablo II College	3:4 ✺
23.08.26	Universitario de Deportes - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Los Chankas - FBC Melgar	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
23.04.26	Los Chankas - Cienciano	1:0
04.08.25	Cienciano - Los Chankas	3:0
23.03.25	Los Chankas - Cienciano	0:0
03.08.24	Cienciano - Los Chankas	0:0
26.02.24	Los Chankas - Cienciano	1:2
Club Friendly
14.01.24	Cienciano - Los Chankas	1:3
Peruvian Liga 2
08.09.19	Cienciano - Los Chankas	3:0

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