Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 8 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Ramos P. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Comerciantes Unidos		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.95	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.3
	3.4	3.3	2.12	Watch
	3.93	3.53	1.89
	4.50	2.38	2.34	Watch
	3	3.25	2.25
	3.42	3.43	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.54)	3.2 ↓ (3.26)	2.15 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
26.7%

Draw
29.5%

Cienciano
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

28.9%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.5%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Comerciantes Unidos's form might have worsened.

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cienciano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Comerciantes Unidos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cienciano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 14 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cienciano (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cienciano will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Villete A. (G) 17. Cardenas P. 31. Aguilar R. 16. Tecilla N. 26. Mendez P. 30. Marina J. 20. Parodi J. 22. Marchioni J. 37. Vilchez Y. 15. Carpio Ferro M. P. 76. Figueroa N.	24. Bolado J. (G) 6. Galeano L. 2. Ortiz D. 70. Valoyes J. 18. Gamero Y. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. (C) 77. Souza Espana C. 27. Ortiz J. 39. Aguirre G. 13. Hohberg A. 17. Noronha O.
Substitutes
40. Alcedo F. 36. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 1. Caytuiro F. (G) 34. Chipao R. 11. Lecaros A. 6. Paico K. 35. Paredes G. 29. Saavedra C. 85. Sanchez G.	15. Amasifuen N. 29. Barrios I. (G) 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 30. Da Silva B. 21. Garces C. 8. Gonzalez A. 26. Palomino R. 55. Ramua A. 14. Torrejon C.
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Desio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 0, Cardenas P. ⚽, Marchioni J. (A),
60', Marchioni J. ↓, Chipao R. ↑,
67', Ortiz J. ↓, Da Silva B. ↑,
67', Aguirre G. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
74', Souza Espana C. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
75', Noronha O. ↓, Garces C. ↑,
76', Figueroa N. 🟨,
77', Figueroa N. ↓, Sanchez G. ↑,
77', Vilchez Y. ↓, Alcedo F. ↑,
80', Arias Fierro S. D. ↓, Ramua A. ↑,
84', Cardenas P. 🟨,
84', Cardenas P. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
84', Carpio Ferro M. P. ↓, Lecaros A. ↑,
90+1', Gamero Y. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Ortiz D. ⚽, Hohberg A. (A),
90+6', Hohberg A. 🟨,

Preview

Comerciantes Unidos has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cienciano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Comerciantes Unidos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Comerciantes Unidos: Guzman W. (Red Card) Sen M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Comerciantes Unidos: Carpio Ferro M. P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cienciano: Neira C. (Injury) Romagnoli J. (Injury) Sandoval R. (Stomach Disorder)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1.2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
01.08.25	Los Chankas - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2 ✺
27.07.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
18.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
11.07.25	ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
04.08.25	Cienciano - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
13.07.25	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
09.03.25	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2
13.07.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	1:2
27.01.24	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0
Peruvian Liga 2
15.09.19	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	2:1
02.06.19	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	4:1

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